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Minnesota (17-2) at Phoenix (13-6)
- When: Jul 9 2025, 3:30 PM
- Where: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: FDSN
WNBA Preview and Prediction: Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
Spread: Minnesota -7.0 | Total: 161.0
Minnesota Lynx Breakdown
The Lynx (17-2) aren’t just winning, they’re smothering teams. Nobody in the W is defending like Minnesota right now. They’re allowing a league-low 74.1 points per game, and opponents are barely cracking 40% from the field. Cheryl Reeve’s crew is locked in, and they’ve already bottled up the Mercury twice this season, holding them under 40% shooting both times.
Napheesa Collier continues to set the tone on both ends, averaging 24.3 points per game, while All-Star guard Courtney Williams is heating up from deep. Williams is hitting from beyond the arc at a clip that could top her personal best and she’s doing it while the team starts a brutal four-games-in-six-days road stretch.
Mental fatigue? Doesn’t seem to be in the Lynx vocabulary. They’ve won three straight and show no signs of slowing. This team defends with grit and expects to win.
Phoenix Mercury Breakdown
Phoenix (13-6) might be the only team confident enough to test Minnesota’s wall of a defense. They’ve cracked 100 points in three of their last five, and Monday’s 102-72 blowout of Dallas was a statement.
Sami Whitcomb torched the Wings with a career-high 36 points and seven bombs from beyond the arc, while Alyssa Thomas logged a triple-double (15-15-10), her first in a Mercury jersey. Phoenix is launching more threes than any team in the league (10.5 per game) and moving the ball well with Thomas running the show.
Coach Nate Tibbetts has this group spacing the floor beautifully and hunting either layups or deep shots. It’s simple, and it’s been effective, but going up against the Lynx D is a different kind of trial.
WNBA Game Prediction:
While the Mercury’s offense is rolling, Minnesota’s defense travels, and they’ve already figured out Phoenix’s offensive rhythm once without their star. Expect the Lynx to control the tempo, close out on shooters, and turn this into a physical, half-court slugfest.
Score Prediction: Minnesota 83, Phoenix 75
Best Bet: Minnesota -7.0
Total: Under 161.0
Back Minnesota to cover the spread and lean under the total in what should be a defense-dominated affair.
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
