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Mississippi State (13-14) vs Alabama (20-7)
- When: Feb 25 2026, 9:00 PM
- Where: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA
- Where to watch: ESPNU
Mississippi State vs (17) Alabama Preview & Prediction
Spread: Alabama -13.5
Moneyline: Alabama (-1300)
Total: 175.0
Mississippi State Bulldog: Underdog With Bite
Alright degenerates, buckle up. Mississippi State strolls into Tuscaloosa catching 13.5 points and staring at a total of 175.0. Yes, you read that correctly. One hundred seventy five. That is not a typo. That is Alabama basketball.
Mississippi State sits at 13-4 overall and 5-9 in SEC play, which basically means they are dangerous enough to ruin a cover but inconsistent enough to ruin your parlay. The entire offensive engine runs through Josh Hubbard, who is averaging 22.0 points per game, third in the SEC. The man dropped 46 on Auburn and hit 10 threes in that game like he was playing NBA Jam. Over a three-game stretch he poured in 109 total points. Casual.
Then he followed that heater by going 4 of 20 against South Carolina for 13 points. Classic gambler emotional roller coaster. Hubbard has six games of 30 or more this season and is four threes away from 300 in his career. Translation: green light forever.
Jayden Epps averages 14.2 points but left the last game after 13 points in 13 minutes with a knee issue. Availability matters here. If Epps is limited, Hubbard is going to take 25 shots whether you like it or not.
The problem? Alabama already beat them 97-82 on Jan. 13. Hubbard had 23 in that one, but the supporting cast did not travel.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Bama Buckets Galore
Alabama is 20-7 and 10-4 in SEC play and apparently decided defense is optional but buckets are mandatory. They lead the nation at 92.6 points per game and are averaging 97.5 during a six-game winning streak. They hung 117 in a double overtime win at Arkansas. They score like they get paid per possession.
Labaron Philon Jr. is the alpha, averaging 21.3 points per game. He dropped 32 on Mississippi State in the first meeting on 10 of 14 shooting and also exploded for 35 against Arkansas. When he gets downhill, good luck.
Aden Holloway is averaging 16.9 per game and just put up 17 against LSU. Even when he shot 5 of 13, his defensive effort impressed Nate Oats. That is scary. When Alabama’s guards defend and still score near 100, spreads start looking small.
Aiden Sherrell added 22 in the first meeting and owns a 26-point career high from the Arkansas thriller. The depth is real and the tempo is relentless.
Betting Outlook and Prediction
Mississippi State can score, but Alabama is a buzz saw at home and already beat this team by 15. The Tide push tempo, force pace, and turn games into track meets. If Hubbard gets hot, it only fuels the over. If he does not, Alabama might cover this by halftime.
This matchup screams points and pace. Alabama’s offensive efficiency plus Mississippi State’s reliance on Hubbard equals a fast game with plenty of possessions. I am laying the points and betting on chaos.
Final Score: Alabama 97, Mississippi State 81
Lean: Alabama -13.5
Total: Over 175.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
