Mississippi State (14-2) at Auburn (15-1)
- When: Jan 14 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Neville Arena, Auburn, AL, USA
- Where to watch: SEC Network
The Auburn Tigers, now holding the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25, face a tough test on Tuesday as they host No. 15 Mississippi State in an SEC showdown. However, Auburn enters this matchup as 8-point favorites without their most dominant player, Johni Broome, which could shake up the dynamic significantly.
Broome, a potential Player of the Year candidate, was sidelined after suffering an ankle sprain during Auburn’s gritty 66-63 win over South Carolina. While surgery isn’t needed, his return timeline remains uncertain. The 6-foot-10 standout has been the heartbeat of Auburn’s offense and defense, averaging 17.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.7 blocks per game. Without him, head coach Bruce Pearl acknowledges that scoring in the paint becomes a lot tougher.
Prop Picks and Game Predictions
Look for Dylan Cardwell, who averages 5.5 points and 4.6 rebounds, to get the first crack at filling Broome’s role. Cardwell made a huge impact late against South Carolina, scoring the go-ahead dunk. His points + rebounds prop could offer value, especially if he plays increased minutes.
Auburn’s balanced attack still boasts five double-digit scorers, led by Chad Baker-Mazara (12.7 ppg). Tahaad Pettiford (11.3 ppg), who sealed the South Carolina game with clutch free throws, could also see his offensive opportunities rise—his over in points prop is worth a look.
Mississippi State’s Defensive Edge
Mississippi State’s calling card is its aggressive defense, forcing 14.6 turnovers per game and ranking 11th nationally with 10.1 steals per game. They’ll look to disrupt Auburn’s offensive flow early and often. However, the Bulldogs are coming off a frustrating 95-90 loss to No. 6 Kentucky, where their defense allowed 16 three-pointers—a rarity for one of the SEC’s toughest defenses. The loss snapped their eight-game winning streak and highlighted defensive lapses.
Bulldogs’ Offensive Struggles
Despite putting up 90 points, Mississippi State’s shot selection left head coach Chris Jans puzzled. The Bulldogs took 40 three-point attempts, converting just 12. Josh Hubbard, their top scorer at 17 points per game, went cold from deep (3-for-11). Jans remains confident in Hubbard’s shooting, but his recent 30.8% clip from long range over the last 12 games raises some concerns. A prop bet on Hubbard’s total 3-pointers made could be risky but rewarding if he heats up.
Key Betting Factors
Auburn owns an 83-71 advantage in the all-time series and has won nine of the last 11 meetings. However, Broome’s absence makes this an intriguing game. Mississippi State has the tools to hang tough, especially if their defense bounces back and Hubbard finds his rhythm.
Prediction: While Auburn’s home-court edge and depth make them favorites, expect Mississippi State to cover the +8 spread, keeping things tight with their disruptive defense. However, the Tigers’ offensive firepower from multiple scorers should be enough to eke out a win at home. With both teams capable of fast-paced runs and occasional defensive lapses, the over 151 is also worth strong consideration.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
