- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Montreal (20-12-5) at Tampa Bay (21-13-3)
- When: Dec 28 2025, 5:00 PM
- Where: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL, USA
- TV: The Spot
Montreal vs Tampa Bay NHL Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -150
Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+168)
Total: 6.0
Montreal Canadiens Breakdown
Montreal returns from the holiday pause in a position few expected this late in the season. The Canadiens sit right in the heart of the Atlantic Division race, battling nightly in what has become one of the tightest groupings in the league. Every point matters, and Montreal has quietly made itself a problem for contenders.
The Canadiens have been collecting points consistently, earning results in seven of their last eight games. That surge prompted management to add experience and defensive structure by bringing back Phillip Danault. His return immediately signals a shift toward responsibility without the puck, especially for a team that has struggled killing penalties. Montreal is clearly prioritizing structure over flash as the schedule tightens.
Offensively, the Canadiens rely on balanced contributions rather than one dominant line. Cole Caufield continues to be the primary finisher, while Nick Suzuki drives playmaking and pace. However, this game represents the third contest of a long road trip, and fatigue often starts to creep in during these spots, particularly against physical teams at home.
Tampa Bay Lightning Breakdown
Tampa Bay enters this matchup riding momentum and confidence. The Lightning pulled off a gritty rivalry win just before this game, showing resilience in a physical contest that tested discipline and depth. Even on tired legs, Tampa Bay has proven capable of managing games with experience and composure.
The Lightning continue to rely on their elite scoring talent, led by Nikita Kucherov, who remains lethal when games tighten late. Tampa Bay has also defended well recently, surviving extended penalty killing situations and limiting second chances. While the power play has not always been sharp, the overall structure remains playoff caliber.
Depth remains a strength, and the roster stability was reinforced with a long term commitment to J.J. Moser, signaling confidence in the blue line moving forward. Tampa Bay is comfortable playing tight, low margin games at home, which fits well against a Montreal team emphasizing defense.
Prediction and Betting Outlook
This matchup profiles as a disciplined, playoff style game rather than a wide open shootout. Montreal will try to slow the pace, while Tampa Bay looks to capitalize on experience and home ice. The Lightning’s ability to close games late gives them the edge.
Tampa Bay earns the home win, and the game stays under 6.5 as both teams prioritize structure and positioning.
Score Prediction: Lightning 4, Canadiens 2
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+168)
Total: Under 6.5 Alt Lines (-135)
- NHL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
