New Mexico (26-7) vs Marquette (23-10)
- When: Mar 21 2025, 7:25 PM
- Where: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH, USA
- Where to watch: TBS
NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Marquette vs. New Mexico
Line: Marquette -4 | Total: 153.0Marquette Golden Eagles (23-10 SU, 19-14 ATS)
Seed: No. 7 | Conference: Big East
Marquette enters the Big Dance as one of the more consistent programs all season, ranking in the Top 25 from start to finish. Head coach Shaka Smart’s squad is battle-tested, experienced, and features a core group that’s made three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, including a No. 2 seed run in 2023.
Guard Kam Jones leads the offense with 19.3 points per game and is supported by seniors David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell. Mitchell will be tasked with slowing down New Mexico’s offensive engine Donovan Dent, and as a Naismith Defensive Player of the Year semifinalist, he’s up to the task.
The Golden Eagles have been rock-solid with the ball, ranking 30th nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.49), and they thrive in structured sets. With a senior-heavy lineup and a defense-first mindset, Smart’s squad looks poised to make a deep run if they take care of business here.
Key Trends:
Marquette is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.
The Golden Eagles have covered five of their last seven Friday games.
This core group has NCAA Tournament experience with six games in the last three seasons.
Prediction: Marquette’s disciplined backcourt and elite perimeter defense give them the edge in a high-tempo game. Expect them to slow down New Mexico just enough and grind out a win.
New Mexico Lobos (26-7 SU, 19-12-1 ATS)
Seed: No. 10 | Conference: Mountain West
New Mexico may be the underdog here, but they’re a dangerous one. The Lobos storm into Cleveland on a high after capturing the Mountain West tournament title. They’re fast, athletic, and explosive — a complete contrast in style from Marquette.
Mountain West Player of the Year Donovan Dent (20.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) is the engine for Richard Pitino’s offense. Dent is responsible for over 30% of the team’s scoring output and does it all while pushing the tempo. Supporting him are Tayton Conerway and Myles Rigsby, who bring balance and rebounding to a backcourt-heavy attack.
Pitino has some insider info too — his father Rick went 3-0 against Marquette this season while coaching St. John’s. Expect Richard to implement some of those same schemes.
However, the Lobos’ Achilles heel is ball security. Dent averages nearly three turnovers per game, and as a team, they struggle when forced into half-court sets. If Marquette can slow the game down, New Mexico might be playing uphill all night.
Key Trends:
Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
New Mexico is 6-2 ATS in neutral-site games this season.
The Lobos have gone Over the total in 10 of their last 14.
Prediction: New Mexico will make this a track meet, but if they don’t force Marquette out of its rhythm early, it could unravel quickly. Still, they’re too talented offensively to count out, especially with their confidence at a peak.
Final Score Prediction:
Marquette 81, New Mexico 75
Pick: Marquette -4
Lean: Over 153.0
Marquette’s ball control and veteran leadership should be the difference. Expect a high-scoring affair, but the Golden Eagles’ defense gets key stops late to survive and advance.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
