New Mexico (27-7) vs Michigan State (28-6)
- When: Mar 23 2025, 8:40 PM
- Where: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH, USA
- Where to watch: TruTV
Michigan State vs. New Mexico Betting Preview
Line: Michigan State -7.0
Total: 148.0
NCAA South Region Second Round
Michigan State Spartans Breakdown
The Spartans are red-hot heading into the second round, riding high after dismantling Bryant 87-62 in their tournament opener. Despite a slow start that saw them trail briefly in the first half, Michigan State turned on the jets and overwhelmed the Bulldogs in nearly every facet of the game—especially on the glass, closing with a +27 rebounding edge.
Tom Izzo’s squad is playing with the poise of a veteran group that’s built for March. Michigan State shot a healthy 38% from deep in the first round (10-for-26), and their bench came through in a big way. Freshman Coen Carr was a sparkplug, dropping 18 points and grabbing nine boards, while Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman combined for seven triples off the bench.
The Spartans are experienced, efficient, and bring one of the best defensive units in the tournament. Their perimeter pressure and rebounding dominance will be key against a New Mexico team that thrives in transition.
Key Player Props to Watch:
Jase Richardson Over 16.5 Points
Coen Carr Over 6.5 Rebounds
Tre Holloman Over 1.5 Made Threes
New Mexico Lobos Breakdown
The Lobos stunned many by knocking out 7-seed Marquette in their first-round showdown, pulling away late behind standout performances from Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph. Dent racked up 21 points and six assists, overcoming a turnover-prone night, while Joseph added 19 points and seven boards.
New Mexico showed resilience and grit, winning their first NCAA Tournament game since 2012 and giving head coach Richard Pitino his first Big Dance win with the program. Pitino, no stranger to facing Izzo from his Big Ten days at Minnesota, knows the challenge ahead—Michigan State’s size, depth, and defensive pressure.
That said, the Lobos are battle-tested and capable of catching fire. They’ve now won six of their last seven and are shooting the ball with confidence from deep. If they can match the Spartans physically and keep the turnover count manageable, they have the pieces to make this competitive.
Key Player Props to Watch:
Donovan Dent Over 5.5 Assists
Nelly Junior Joseph Under 14.5 Points
Prediction & Final Score
New Mexico has been one of the more underrated teams in this tournament, and they’ll push Michigan State more than the spread suggests. However, the Spartans’ balance, depth, and defensive intensity give them the edge in the second half. Expect New Mexico to hang tough, but Izzo’s group will make the right plays late to pull away.
Final Score Prediction:
Michigan State 75, New Mexico 70
Picks:
New Mexico +7.0
Under 148.0 Total Points
Expect a physical, grind-it-out type of battle between two well-coached teams that know each other well—even if the uniforms are different. The Spartans have their eyes on a deep run, but don’t be surprised if the Lobos make them earn every bit of it.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
