- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
North Carolina (20-5) vs NC State (18-8)
- When: Feb 17 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(16) North Carolina vs NC State Preview & Prediction
Spread: NC State -6.5
Moneyline: NC State (-270)
Total: 158.5
Grab the popcorn. Tobacco Road is heating up again.
North Carolina Tar Heels: Surviving Without the Star
Let’s start with the obvious. Caleb Wilson is out. That’s 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game currently chilling in a cast. Not ideal. But here’s the funny thing about North Carolina. Every time someone goes down, somebody else pops up like it’s a basketball-themed game of Whac-A-Mole.
Without Wilson and without Henri Veesaar, the Tar Heels casually rolled Pitt 79-65. No panic. No sirens. Just business. Jarin Stevenson and Seth Trimble stepped in and both dropped 19 points like they’d been waiting for this moment all season. Stevenson has quietly averaged 11.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and one assist over his last six games, and suddenly he looks extremely comfortable being “The Guy Who Has To Score Now.”
UNC is still massive up front. They average 38.8 rebounds per game, fourth in the ACC. They don’t just rebound. They inhale missed shots. The key question: can they maintain that physical edge on the road without Wilson’s production? Against Pitt, sure. Against NC State? That’s a different animal.
NC State Wolfpack: Defense Optional?
NC State sits at 18-8 and has real March aspirations, but they’re coming off back-to-back losses and not exactly thrilled about it. In their one-point loss to Miami, they gave up 20 offensive rebounds. Twenty. That’s not a typo. That’s a public service announcement.
They also got outscored in the paint 56-32. That’s not losing the battle inside. That’s renting it out. Ven-Allen Lubin, who averages 13.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, has been a rock. He also leads the ACC in field goal percentage at 68.4%, which basically means if he’s near the rim, it’s going in.
But the concern? Size. Coach Will Wade flat-out said UNC’s front line is huge and that it’s been an issue for them. When the coach says that out loud, that’s not comforting.
Betting Breakdown and Prediction
NC State -6.5 suggests the Wolfpack get the respect of home court and UNC’s injury situation. The total at 158.5 screams “track meet,” but rivalry games can get weird. Physical. Emotional. Slightly chaotic.
UNC is deep, confident and still rebounds like crazy. NC State is talented but just got bullied on the glass. That matchup matters. This feels tighter than the spread indicates.
Expect drama. Expect noise. Expect someone on Tobacco Road to lose their voice.
Final Score: NC State 82, North Carolina 79
Lean: North Carolina +6.5
Total: Over 158.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
