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NY Yankees (76-61) at Houston (76-62)
- When: Sep 2 2025, 8:10 PM
- Where: Daikin Park, Houston
- Where to watch: TBS
Yankees vs Astros – Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Moneyline: NY Yankees -118
Total: 7.5
RunLine: NY Yankees -1.5 (+156)
New York Yankees Betting Outlook
The Yankees (76-61) come in as slim favorites at -118 on the moneyline with the total sitting at 7.5 runs. Max Fried takes the mound, looking sharper after tossing seven innings of one-run ball against Washington. It was his first time going that deep since late June, and if he’s back to form, the Bronx Bombers could ride him to a series-opening win.
Fried has some history with Houston, including a start earlier this month where he gave up four runs in five innings. The left-hander hasn’t fared well against the Astros overall, but the Yankees’ offense may give him more margin for error this time.
New York’s lineup is hoping Aaron Judge is finally heating up after posting his first three-hit game since July and homering in back-to-back contests. If Judge catches fire, this offense takes on a whole new gear.
Yankees Player Prop Pick: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases – with signs of life at the plate, he’s a threat to deliver again.
Houston Astros Betting Outlook
The Astros (76-62) counter with Framber Valdez (12-7, 3.18 ERA), who just snapped a five-start winless streak with seven scoreless innings against Colorado. That performance resembled the version of Valdez that rattled off a 10-0 run earlier this summer. His track record against New York is rocky, with an ERA north of six across five career starts, but Houston needs him steady to keep pace in the AL Wild Card race.
The rotation is finally stabilizing with Luis Garcia’s return, giving the Astros a much-needed boost at just the right time. Offensively, Houston still relies on timely hitting and the long ball to keep games close against teams like the Yankees.
Astros Player Prop Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 home runs – his power is always the X-factor in tight, low-total games.
Prediction & Betting Angle
This matchup shapes up as a classic low-scoring duel. Fried looks rejuvenated, and Valdez is fresh off his best outing in weeks. Both bullpens may be tested, but the Yankees’ home-field advantage and Judge’s resurgence tilt the scales slightly.
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Astros 3
Lean: NY Yankees (-118)
Total: Under 7.5 (-103)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
