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Oklahoma City (45-14) at Detroit (42-14)
- When: Feb 25 2026, 7:30 PM
- Where: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI, USA
- TV: FDSDET
Oklahoma City vs Detroit Preview & Prediction
Spread: Detroit -7.5
Moneyline: Detroit (-290)
Total: 220.5
Detroit enters as a 7.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 220.5, and on paper this looks like a heavyweight matchup between two conference leaders who haven’t yet tested each other this season.
Detroit Pistons Breakdown
The Pistons have spent most of the year sitting comfortably atop the Eastern Conference, but they were reminded Monday that nothing is automatic in this league. Their five-game winning streak ended in a 114-103 loss to the Spurs, and the biggest storyline was Cade Cunningham’s rough shooting night.
Cunningham finished with 16 points on 5-of-26 from the field. That’s not just below his standard — that’s an outlier. When your All-Star guard can’t buy a bucket, everything stalls. Detroit struggled to generate rhythm offensively, and when they’re not flowing in transition or getting paint touches, their half-court sets can look pedestrian.
That said, one thing I love about this team from a betting perspective is consistency. They haven’t dropped back-to-back games since late December. Good teams respond, and historically this group has bounced back with focus and physicality after a loss.
The coaching staff will emphasize tempo control and defensive intensity here. Detroit plays best when they dictate pace, protect the rim, and turn defense into easy offense. At home, they’ve been strong against quality opponents, and you can expect a sharper Cunningham performance.
Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown
Now let’s talk about Oklahoma City. The reigning champions are still without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s missed eight straight games with an abdominal strain. Normally that would tank a team’s offensive ceiling — but not this group.
They’re 5-3 without SGA and riding a three-game winning streak. That tells me this roster is deeper than the market sometimes gives them credit for.
Cason Wallace has stepped up in a big way. He dropped 27 points on 11-of-16 shooting against Toronto and has embraced more ball-handling responsibility. Isaiah Joe and Alex Caruso have also provided scoring punch and perimeter defense.
The Thunder aren’t playing superstar basketball right now — they’re playing system basketball. Ball movement, defensive rotations, spacing. When teams lose their alpha scorer, sometimes they become more unpredictable and harder to scheme against.
From a betting standpoint, that makes them dangerous as underdogs.
Betting Angle & Prediction
Detroit at -7.5 feels just a touch inflated, especially against a disciplined Oklahoma City squad that’s comfortable grinding games down.
I expect Detroit to respond emotionally after the Spurs loss and secure the win at home. They’re too good defensively and too focused to let this slip.
But seven and a half points is a sizable number against a Thunder team that has covered consistently without SGA and is playing connected basketball.
That lands Detroit on the moneyline and Thunder backers cashing the ticket against the spread.
Final Score: Detroit 111, Oklahoma City 107
Lean: Oklahoma City +7.5
Total: Under 220.5
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
