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Thunder vs Rockets NBA Basketball Odds & Expert Parlay Picks

Oklahoma City and Houston will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at Toyota Center.

(Photo by Getty Images) Jalen Green

Oklahoma City (64-12) at Houston (50-27)

  • When: Apr 4 2025, 6:00 PM
  • Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
  • TV: SCHN

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Expert Preview & Picks

Spread: Thunder -6.5 | Total: 227.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Outlook

Oklahoma City (64-12) is locked in as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and is showing no signs of easing off the gas. The Thunder dominated Detroit in their latest outing, improving to 18-1 in their last 19 games and maintaining a three-game lead over the Cavs for the league’s best record — a position that guarantees home-court advantage throughout the postseason.

This is a team that’s elite on both ends of the floor: top-three in offensive efficiency and first in defensive rating. Their young core, led by MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and versatile big man Chet Holmgren, continues to play with poise and precision. The Thunder have won three of the four meetings against Houston this season and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10.

Player Prop Picks (OKC):

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points: He’s consistently producing big in marquee matchups.
Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists: With Houston’s focus on SGA, look for Williams to facilitate more.

Houston Rockets Outlook

The Rockets (50-27) locked in their first postseason berth since 2020 with a 143-105 blowout of the Utah Jazz. It marked their 13th win in the last 15 games, showing that Houston is more than just a feel-good story — they’re a legitimate threat. However, the Rockets now face their toughest test to date: a surging Thunder squad that has had their number this season.

Coach Ime Udoka has emphasized staying focused down the stretch with playoff positioning on the line. Houston sits three games ahead of Denver and the Lakers for the No. 2 seed, but they’ll need to finish strong with matchups looming against Golden State, the Clippers, and the Lakers to close the season.

Player Prop Picks (HOU):

Jalen Green Over 24.5 Points: Green is heating up at the right time and will be needed to carry the scoring load.
Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 Rebounds: He’s key on the glass against OKC’s smaller frontcourt.

Expert Prediction & Best Bets

This could be a potential Western Conference Finals preview, but OKC’s depth and balance give them the edge here. Houston is hot, but OKC has proven they can contain the Rockets’ key weapons. The Thunder’s ability to dominate defensively and control tempo makes them the more trustworthy side.

Prediction: Thunder 115, Rockets 106

Best Bet: Thunder -6.5
Lean: Under 227.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 21.5 Points
Jalen Green Over 20.5 Points

Expect a playoff-level intensity game — but the Thunder are simply too polished and too consistent right now.

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