Oklahoma City (59-12) at Sacramento (35-36)
- When: Mar 25 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
- TV: TNT
NBA Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings
Spread: Thunder -10 | Total: 232.0
Oklahoma City Thunder Outlook
The Thunder continue to assert their dominance in the Western Conference, entering Tuesday night with a 59-12 record and riding a six-game winning streak. They’ve already locked up the top seed in the West and are now chasing franchise history with 60+ wins in sight — a mark last hit during the 2012-13 season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is spearheading Oklahoma City’s title push, averaging nearly 33 points per game while playing at an MVP-caliber level. Even with injuries lingering for key contributors like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the Thunder haven’t skipped a beat. Depth has been a strength, and players like Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso have stepped up to keep the momentum alive.
Oklahoma City’s defense has been elite, allowing just under 107 points per game while keeping opponents to under 44% shooting. They’ve also dominated Sacramento in their two previous meetings, winning by 21 and 34 points.
Sacramento Kings Outlook
The Kings are trending in the opposite direction. Currently sitting ninth in the West, they’re clinging to play-in positioning and have dropped three straight — all at home. Their most recent loss, a 113-95 defeat to the Celtics, showcased their inability to defend the perimeter or generate consistent offense.
Sacramento’s offense has sputtered lately, with poor shooting from deep and little help outside of DeMar DeRozan. They’re averaging 24% from three-point range over their last two losses, and their defensive rotations have been slow and ineffective. If Domantas Sabonis remains sidelined or limited, it could make an already tough matchup nearly impossible.
Coach Doug Christie has emphasized focus and consistency, but the Kings have lacked both during this homestand. And against a team as disciplined and balanced as Oklahoma City, those flaws will be exposed quickly.
Betting Angle & Prediction
Oklahoma City has been one of the best teams against the spread this season, consistently covering in both home and road spots. Sacramento, meanwhile, has been unreliable in back-to-backs and has struggled mightily as a home underdog.
The Thunder’s defensive intensity and depth give them a major edge here, especially if Holmgren and Williams are available. Even without them, OKC’s ball movement, transition play, and shot creation should be more than enough to overpower a slumping Kings squad.
Score Prediction:
Thunder 120, Kings 108
Pick: Thunder -10
Lean: Under 232.0
Player Prop Targets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points
He’s been on a tear and Sacramento doesn’t have the perimeter defenders to slow him down.
Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 9.5 Rebounds
With Holmgren possibly limited, Hartenstein could be a big factor on the glass against a Kings team that struggles to box out.
Alex Caruso OVER 1.5 Steals
Sacramento has turned the ball over at a higher rate recently, and Caruso thrives in pressure situations.
Final Thoughts
Oklahoma City is locked in and chasing history, while Sacramento is slipping at the wrong time. Expect the Thunder to come out focused and cover the number with ease, while asserting themselves as the team to beat out West.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
