Oklahoma (16-9) at Florida (22-3)
- When: Feb 18 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Stephen C. O’Connell Center, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN2
Game Preview
Oklahoma vs. Florida Betting Preview and Predictions
Mississippi State is favored by 15.0 | Total: 157.0
Oklahoma and No. 2 Florida took vastly different paths after starting the season 13-0. While the Sooners have stumbled, losing nine of their last 12, the Gators have surged, winning nine of 12 and securing two victories over top-ranked opponents.
Tuesday night’s showdown in Gainesville presents a critical opportunity for both teams, albeit for different reasons. Oklahoma is fighting to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive, while Florida is looking to solidify its case for a No. 1 seed.
Florida Gators Betting Outlook
Record: 22-3 (9-3 SEC)
ATS Record: 14-9
Florida enters this matchup riding a four-game winning streak, most recently crushing South Carolina 88-67. The win was notable for the return of two key players: center Micah Handlogten, who made his season debut following a broken leg, and Alijah Martin, the team’s second-leading scorer, who had missed two games with a hip injury.
The Gators’ deep rotation has been a strength, and Denzel Aberdeen has capitalized on his increased role. Over the last two games, he’s scored 42 points while shooting an impressive 62.5% from the field.
Another key factor for Florida will be its ability to dominate inside, despite the absence of Alex Condon (ankle) and reserve big man Sam Alexis. Handlogten’s return comes at the perfect time, and Thomas Haugh, who posted a career-high 20 points against South Carolina, will be crucial in this matchup.
Florida’s offensive efficiency is among the best in the country, and their ability to push the tempo and force turnovers will likely put Oklahoma on its heels early.
Key Betting Trends:
Florida is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
The Gators have covered in four of their last five home games.
The over has hit in seven of Florida’s last 10 contests.
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Outlook
Record: 16-9 (3-9 SEC)
ATS Record: 11-12-1
Oklahoma is in a downward spiral, losing four straight, including a disastrous 82-79 home collapse against LSU. The Sooners blew a five-point lead in the final 35 seconds, surrendering a four-point play and a three-point play in a sequence that left coach Porter Moser calling it a “complete meltdown.”
Prior to the LSU loss, the Sooners suffered three consecutive blowout defeats to ranked opponents, with an average margin of 23.3 points. Unfortunately for Oklahoma, its remaining schedule is brutal, with the next five games also coming against ranked teams.
If the Sooners want to have any shot at keeping this game competitive, they’ll need big performances from Jalon Moore (17.2 PPG) and Jeremiah Fears (15.2 PPG). The problem? Florida’s defense is elite at limiting perimeter scorers, and Oklahoma’s interior presence isn’t strong enough to exploit the Gators’ temporary frontcourt injuries.
Key Betting Trends:
Oklahoma is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.
The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
They have gone under the total in five of their last eight games.
Betting Predictions and Picks
Score Prediction: Florida 89, Oklahoma 70
This is a lopsided matchup in every way. Florida has a deep roster, elite scoring, and a defensive unit that should completely shut down an already struggling Oklahoma offense. The Sooners’ recent form suggests they will struggle to keep pace, and Florida’s tempo will eventually wear them down.
Best Bets:
Florida -15.0: The Gators have the firepower to pull away, and Oklahoma has shown a tendency to fold against top-tier competition. Expect Florida to extend the margin late.
Over 157.0: Florida’s offense is clicking, and Oklahoma’s defensive struggles will allow the Gators to dictate pace. Even if the Sooners struggle, Florida should do enough to push this over.
Denzel Aberdeen Over 12.5 Points: Aberdeen has stepped up in Martin’s absence and should continue to get scoring opportunities against an Oklahoma team that ranks near the bottom of the SEC in defensive efficiency.
Florida should control this game from start to finish, and unless Oklahoma finds a way to turn things around quickly, this one could get ugly fast.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
