Ottawa (0-0) at Toronto (0-0)
- When: Apr 20 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON, CAN
- TV: ESPN2
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Game 1 Preview: Betting Outlook & Prediction
Moneyline Favorite: Toronto -160 | Total: 5.5
The Battle of Ontario makes its long-awaited playoff return, as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators in Game 1 of their first-round matchup. It’s been 21 years since these two rivals met in the postseason, and the energy inside Scotiabank Arena will reflect that.
Ottawa Senators Betting Breakdown
Ottawa enters the series as a dangerous underdog, having swept the Maple Leafs 3-0 during the regular season. However, the Senators still finished 11 points back of Toronto in the standings. That said, the Senators are healthy and hungry—especially captain Brady Tkachuk, who returns to the lineup after an upper-body injury cost him the final stretch of the regular season.
This will be Tkachuk’s playoff debut after seven NHL seasons, and he’s expected to lead a physical and aggressive Ottawa squad that ranked 12th in power play efficiency. Linus Ullmark, likely to start Game 1 in goal, brings stability with a .910 save percentage and Vezina-winning pedigree from 2023.
Ottawa’s recent form and offensive balance—powered by Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, and Tim Stutzle—could make them a tough out. However, playoff inexperience could be a deciding factor in the long haul.
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Breakdown
Toronto closed the regular season red-hot, riding a five-game win streak into the playoffs, and they now aim to finally put together a deep postseason run. This is their ninth straight playoff appearance, but they’ve advanced past the first round just once in that span.
The Leafs will benefit from the return of defenseman Jake McCabe, though Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s Game 1 status remains uncertain. In goal, Anthony Stolarz is expected to start, boasting the league’s top save percentage (.926) this season.
Offensively, Toronto boasts elite production. Mitch Marner (102 points), William Nylander (84 points, 45 goals), and Auston Matthews (78 points) lead one of the NHL’s most lethal top lines. The Leafs also own the league’s ninth-ranked power play, setting the stage for a special teams showdown.
Prediction & Betting Pick
Toronto has the star power and momentum, but Ottawa has shown they’re not intimidated by this matchup. With both teams boasting capable power plays and solid goaltending, expect a tightly-contested series opener.
Score Prediction: Maple Leafs 3, Senators 2
Best Bet: Under 5.5 goals
Lean: Maple Leafs Moneyline (-160) – play cautiously given Ottawa’s recent head-to-head success.
Discipline and execution on special teams will be key, but the home-ice advantage and playoff-tested veterans give Toronto the edge in Game 1.
- NHL Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
