Pepperdine (13-21) at Saint Mary’s (27-4)
- When: Mar 10 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Saint Mary’s vs. Pepperdine: WCC Tournament Semifinals Betting Preview
Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-4)
The top-seeded Gaels are coming into this West Coast Conference semifinal matchup well-rested, thanks to the WCC tournament format that protects the regular-season champion. They haven’t played since March 1, when they closed out their schedule with a 74-64 victory over Oregon State.
While the long break is beneficial for recovery and preparation, it also presents the challenge of staying sharp and game-ready. Head coach Randy Bennett emphasized that the team has been staying focused and not treating this gap as a vacation.
Saint Mary’s comes in with plenty of momentum and accolades. Bennett was named WCC Coach of the Year for the fourth straight season, while point guard Augustas Marciulionis took home WCC Player of the Year honors for the second year in a row. Mitchell Saxen also claimed WCC Defensive Player of the Year for the second consecutive season.
With an automatic NCAA Tournament bid secured, the Gaels will look to shake off any rust and dominate just as they did in two previous meetings against Pepperdine, winning by 24 and 30 points in those matchups.
Saint Mary’s relies on their elite defense, ranking among the best defensive units in the country. They allow just 60.9 points per game, and with fresh legs coming into this one, their intensity should be relentless against a fatigued Pepperdine squad.
Expect Saint Mary’s to control the pace, force turnovers, and make life miserable for a short-handed Waves team that has leaned heavily on its starters during their impressive but grueling tournament run.
Pepperdine Waves (13-21)
The ninth-seeded Waves have been the story of the tournament, putting together a Cinderella run that has seen them win three games in three days, including an upset victory over fourth-seeded Santa Clara (78-76) on Sunday.
Despite entering the tournament on a five-game losing streak, the Waves have refused to fold, and Moe Odum has been a breakout star. Odum has put up 20.3 points and 11.3 assists per game in the tournament, notching a double-double in every game so far.
Odum has played 116 out of 120 possible minutes, while Stefan Todorovic has barely left the floor, logging 111 minutes over that same span. Fatigue is a real concern, especially against a Saint Mary’s team that thrives on grinding down opponents.
The Waves trailed by 13 points early against Santa Clara before storming back, showing impressive resilience. However, the challenge they now face is exponentially greater. Head coach Ed Schilling acknowledged the uphill battle, stating, “You need energy against Saint Mary’s, but you need a whole lot of other stuff too. They’ve got experience, depth, and talent.”
Pepperdine’s best hope is to push the tempo early, try to generate open looks in transition, and avoid getting caught in the Gaels’ methodical half-court defense. However, given their short rotation and exhaustion from playing three straight nights, they may not have the legs to keep pace.
Betting Analysis & Predictions
Spread: Saint Mary’s -19
Total: 134.5
Saint Mary’s cruised past Pepperdine in both regular-season matchups, winning by 24 and 30 points, and the gap between these teams has only widened. The Gaels are fresh, dominant defensively, and have a clear path to the WCC title game, while Pepperdine is running on fumes after three straight grueling wins.
Betting Picks:
✅ Saint Mary’s -19 (Gaels will wear down Pepperdine over 40 minutes)
✅ Under 134.5 (Fatigue for Pepperdine + Gaels’ elite defense should keep scoring in check)
This Cinderella run has been fun to watch, but it’s about to come to an end in emphatic fashion. Expect Saint Mary’s to control the glass, suffocate Pepperdine’s offense, and cruise to a dominant victory on their way to the WCC Championship Game.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
