Chi. Cubs (11-7) at San Diego (13-3)
- When: Apr 14 2025, 9:40 PM
- Where: PETCO Park, San Diego
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network
MLB Game Preview & Expert Betting Prediction: Cubs at Padres
Game Odds:
Moneyline: San Diego Padres -153 | Total: 7.5
San Diego Padres (13-3, First in NL West)
San Diego rolls into this home series absolutely on fire, matching the franchise’s best start ever. The Padres have shut out their last three opponents and now have six shutouts in their first 16 games, all coming at home. Even more impressive, they’ve allowed just 11 total runs in 10 home games, going a perfect 10-0 at Petco Park to start the 2025 campaign.
Their pitching has been historically dominant — the last time a team did this well was Cleveland in 1966. On Sunday, Michael King tossed a complete-game two-hit shutout over Colorado to cap the sweep and keep the momentum going.
Right-hander Dylan Cease (1-1, 7.98 ERA) will try to bounce back from a rough outing where he gave up nine earned runs in just four innings to the A’s. But historically, he’s fared well against the Cubs, going 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA in seven starts against his former team.
Key Prop Targets:
Dylan Cease over 6.5 strikeouts (if he rebounds)
San Diego total runs over 3.5 at home
Consider No Runs First Inning (NRFI) — Padres’ pitching at home is elite
Chicago Cubs (10-6, First in NL Central)
The Cubs arrive in San Diego after taking two of three from the Dodgers, ending the series on a high note with a 4-2 win behind Pete Crow-Armstrong’s two home runs. Despite that boost, the team is licking its wounds after losing ace Justin Steele to season-ending elbow surgery.
Jameson Taillon (1-1, 6.06 ERA) will start on Monday. While his season has been shaky, he’s 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in four career starts against the Padres. He looked sharp last week with six solid innings and six strikeouts in a win over Texas.
Offensively, the Cubs have leaned on timely power, but losing Steele and facing a red-hot Padres team on the road is a tall task. Their bullpen is also a bit overworked coming off back-to-back high-leverage games.
Key Prop Targets:
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (riding momentum)
Taillon over 3.5 strikeouts — solid history vs. San Diego
Expert Prediction & Best Bets
Prediction: Padres 4, Cubs 2
Best Bets:
Full Game: Padres -1.5 (+140) — Momentum, home-field dominance, and elite pitching
Total: Under 7.5 (-120) — With both starters having strong history vs. opponent, expect a tight, low-scoring battle
Props: Cease to record win — Bounce-back spot in a favorable matchup
San Diego is just too hot to fade right now. Back the Padres to continue their home dominance and ride their pitching staff to another controlled win.
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
