- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Phoenix (27-17) at Las Vegas (30-14)
- When: Oct 3 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV, USA
- TV: ESPN
Phoenix vs Las Vegas – WNBA Finals Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Las Vegas -3.5 | Total: 160.0
Las Vegas Aces – Seeking a Dynasty Moment
Las Vegas enters the WNBA Finals as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 160.0, and it’s easy to see why. The Aces, aiming for their third championship in four seasons, have transformed midseason turbulence into momentum. After sitting at 14-14 in August, they rattled off 16 consecutive wins to finish 30-14 and seize the No. 2 seed.
A’ja Wilson has been on another planet during the playoffs, averaging 26.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, and 2.6 steals per game. She’s supported by Chelsea Gray, the “Point Gawd,” who provides veteran stability, and Jewell Loyd, a late-season addition who has added a scoring punch on the wing. This group knows how to handle the stage, and their ball movement and depth have been key factors down the stretch.
Player Prop Pick – Aces: A’ja Wilson Over 24.5 Points feels like a strong angle as she’s dominated Phoenix’s frontcourt all year.
Phoenix Mercury – Built for Chaos and Upsets
Phoenix may be the underdog, but they’re not afraid of the moment. The Mercury retooled quickly after losing Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, landing Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to pair with star Kahleah Copper. This “quiet rebuild” turned them into one of the most dangerous playoff teams.
Phoenix’s postseason run already includes taking down the New York Liberty and top-seeded Minnesota Lynx, both despite injury-disrupted rosters. Thomas has been a force, averaging 18.6 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.4 rebounds per game this postseason. The Mercury thrive on defense turning into transition, and their aggressive style matches up well against Las Vegas’ fast pace.
Player Prop Pick – Mercury: Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists is appealing given her triple-double-level production all playoffs.
Expert Prediction & Betting Angle
This Finals opener feels like the beginning of a heavyweight bout. The Aces are deeper, more experienced, and riding a 16-game win streak. Phoenix has been resilient, but injuries to opponents have played a role in their path.
Expect Las Vegas to start the series strong at home.
Best Bet: Las Vegas -3.5
Toral: Over 160.0
Final Score Prediction: Aces 85, Mercury 78
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
