Purdue (21-9) at Illinois (19-11)
- When: Mar 7 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: State Farm Center, Champaign, IL, USA
- Where to watch: FOX
Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Preview
Spread: Illinois -4.5
Total: 159.5
This Big Ten showdown features two teams that have drastically turned their seasons around in the past couple of weeks. Purdue is back to winning form after a rough four-game skid, while Illinois has regained its confidence after suffering a humiliating loss to Duke. Both squads are looking to build momentum heading into the conference tournament, making this matchup a high-stakes battle.
Purdue Boilermakers: Finding Their Rhythm Again
After enduring their worst losing streak in five years, Purdue (21-9, 13-6 Big Ten) has bounced back with consecutive wins, showing signs of the dominant team they were earlier in the season. Their most recent victory—a 100-71 rout over Rutgers—showed their offensive firepower, with junior point guard Braden Smith putting on a show.
Smith, the frontrunner for Big Ten Player of the Year, torched Rutgers with 23 points, nine assists, and seven three-pointers. Purdue also controlled the boards with a 40-26 rebounding edge, a crucial factor heading into this matchup against one of the top rebounding teams in the country.
The Boilermakers have been inconsistent on the road this season, but their interior play and outside shooting make them a dangerous underdog. If they can continue their hot shooting and win the battle on the glass, Purdue could spoil Illinois’ Senior Night.
Betting Trends:
Purdue has covered in back-to-back games after failing to cover in their previous four.
The Boilermakers have hit the Over in three of their last four matchups.
Purdue is 5-3 ATS in their last eight games against Illinois.
Illinois Fighting Illini: Red-Hot at the Right Time
Illinois (19-11, 11-8 Big Ten) has erased any doubts about its resilience after back-to-back dominant performances against Iowa and Michigan. After a demoralizing 43-point loss to Duke, the Illini could have folded—but instead, they responded with a pair of 20-point victories.
A major reason for their resurgence has been their three-point shooting. Illinois shot just 26.2% from deep over a 12-game stretch but flipped the switch against Michigan, drilling 37.8% (14-for-37) from beyond the arc. If they keep shooting at that level, they’ll be tough to stop at home.
The Illini also boast one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, averaging 42.9 boards per game—second only to Alabama. Their ability to dominate the glass will be crucial against a Purdue team that thrives on second-chance opportunities.
Illinois has already locked in a spot in the Big Ten tournament but could move up from an 8-seed to as high as a 6-seed with a win here. A loss would likely have them facing Indiana or Ohio State in the second round of the tournament.
Betting Trends:
Illinois is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.
The Over has hit in three straight Illinois games.
Illinois has won four of the last five home meetings against Purdue.
Final Prediction & Best Bets
Both teams are playing their best basketball in weeks, making this an exciting matchup with potential NCAA Tournament implications. Illinois’ size advantage and rebounding dominance make them a strong pick at home, but Purdue’s recent resurgence can’t be ignored.
Best Bet: Illinois -4.5
The Illini have been dominant at home and have turned things around after their mid-season struggles. Expect them to control the boards and wear down Purdue late.
Over 159.5
Both teams are scoring at a high rate, with Illinois averaging 93 PPG in their last two games and Purdue hitting 100 against Rutgers. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring contest.
Lean Purdue First-Half +2 (-110)
Purdue has started strong in recent games, but Illinois’ depth and rebounding should allow them to pull away in the second half.
Illinois has all the momentum at home, but Purdue won’t go down without a fight. This one should be a thriller heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
