Purdue (19-7) at Michigan State (20-5)
- When: Feb 18 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Jack Breslin Students Events Center, East Lansing, MI, USA
- Where to watch: Peacock
Game Preview
Spread: Michigan State -3.5
Total: 148.5
A pivotal Big Ten battle is set for Tuesday night in East Lansing, with No. 13 Purdue visiting No. 14 Michigan State. Both teams are in the hunt for the conference title, but Purdue enters in desperate need of a win after back-to-back losses. The Boilermakers need to shore up their defense to avoid falling further behind in the standings, while the Spartans look to ride the momentum of their latest comeback victory.
Purdue Boilermakers – Betting Analysis
Record: 19-7 (11-4 Big Ten)
ATS: 12-14
O/U: 15-11
Key Players:
Trey Kaufman-Renn (F): 19.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG
Braden Smith (G): 16.0 PPG, 8.8 APG
Fletcher Loyer (G): 13.9 PPG, 45.3% 3PT
Purdue’s once-dominant defense has slipped in recent games, allowing 75+ points in consecutive losses to Michigan and Wisconsin. In their latest defeat, the Badgers shot a scorching 61.5% from the field while committing only three turnovers. The Boilermakers simply could not contain Wisconsin’s offensive movement, and that issue could spell trouble against a Michigan State team that thrives at home.
The good news? Purdue’s offense is still elite. Trey Kaufman-Renn continues to dominate in the paint, fresh off a 30-point performance, and the backcourt duo of Smith and Loyer can shoot the lights out. Purdue will need its three-point shooting (38.2% as a team) to stay hot, as Michigan State’s perimeter defense has been stingy at home.
Betting Insight: Purdue has struggled on the road in Big Ten play, going just 2-4 ATS in their last six road games. If they don’t clean up their defensive lapses, covering the spread will be a challenge.
Michigan State Spartans – Betting Analysis
Record: 20-5 (11-3 Big Ten)
ATS: 14-10-1
O/U: 13-12
Key Players:
Jaxon Kohler (F): 12.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG
Jase Richardson (G): 11.5 PPG, 3.9 APG
A.J. Hoggard (G): 10.2 PPG, 5.4 APG
Michigan State is coming off a signature 79-65 road win at Illinois, where they stormed back from a 16-point deficit to secure victory. That win not only boosted their Big Ten title hopes but also solidified coach Tom Izzo as the all-time conference wins leader.
The Spartans are built for tough matchups, relying on a balanced scoring attack rather than one dominant player. Nine different players have led the team in scoring this season, and in the Illinois win, it was Jaxon Kohler’s turn, as he put up 23 points and 10 rebounds to lead the second-half charge.
Defense is where Michigan State could have the edge in this matchup. The Spartans allow just 67.5 PPG on 39.9% shooting, which is significantly better than Purdue’s recent defensive performances. If they can control the glass and limit Purdue’s open perimeter looks, Michigan State should be in a strong position to win and cover.
Betting Insight: Michigan State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games and has covered in four of the last five matchups vs. Purdue. Their ability to defend at a high level makes them a strong bet at home.
Betting Predictions & Best Props
Against the Spread: Michigan State -3.5 – Purdue’s defensive issues on the road will be exposed by a well-balanced Spartans team that is rolling after a big comeback win.
Over/Under: Under 148.5 – Both teams have capable offenses, but Michigan State’s defensive intensity at home should slow Purdue’s pace, keeping this game under the total.
Player Props:
Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 19.5 Points – He’s Purdue’s go-to scorer and has topped this number in back-to-back games.
Jaxon Kohler Over 7.5 Rebounds – Coming off a double-double and should have a size advantage against Purdue’s frontcourt.
Braden Smith Over 7.5 Assists – Purdue’s offense flows through him, and he’s averaging close to nine assists per game.
Final Score Prediction: Michigan State 72, Purdue 66
Expect the Spartans to lock down defensively and grind out a crucial home win, covering the spread in the process.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
