Purdue (11-4) at Rutgers (8-7)
- When: Jan 9 2025, 6:00 PM
- Where: Jersey Mike’s Arena, Piscataway, NJ, USA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Purdue enters Thursday’s Big Ten showdown as a -2.0 favorite, with the total set at 149, as the Boilermakers look to extend their winning streak against a Rutgers team searching for consistency.
Game Preview & Betting Breakdown
Junior guard Braden Smith has been the engine behind No. 20 Purdue’s recent three-game winning streak. The Big Ten’s preseason Player of the Year has averaged 25.3 points and 9.7 assists during this stretch, including a 22-point, seven-assist, six-rebound performance in a dominant 79-61 win over Northwestern.
Smith’s season averages of 15.4 points, 8.6 assists, and 4.8 rebounds have kept Purdue’s offense humming even after the departure of former star Zach Edey to the NBA. Head coach Matt Painter praised Smith’s aggressive play, saying, “When he’s taking the right shots and making smart reads, everything flows.”
Despite no longer dominating the paint like they did with Edey, Purdue remains a formidable offensive force, ranking 14th in Division I by shooting 39.6% from beyond the arc. With Smith orchestrating the offense, Purdue boasts a strong assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.5. Trey Kaufman-Renn (17.8 PPG) and Fletcher Loyer (14.0 PPG) have been key beneficiaries of Smith’s playmaking.
Rutgers’ Challenges
The Scarlet Knights (8-7, 1-3 Big Ten) are facing a difficult stretch, coming off a 75-63 home loss to Wisconsin—their third defeat in four games. Once thought to be one of head coach Steve Pikiell’s most talented rosters, thanks to star freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, Rutgers has yet to live up to preseason expectations.
Harper, averaging 21.1 points and 4.5 assists per game, has been battling the flu and looked out of sorts in limited minutes against Wisconsin. Bailey, meanwhile, had a rough night, shooting 3-for-16 and fouling out with two technicals after scoring just nine points.
Despite their recent struggles, Pikiell remains optimistic: “I’ve got a ton of confidence in this team. Once Harper is back at full strength, we’ll be in a much better place.”
Key Matchups & X-Factors
Braden Smith vs. Rutgers’ Defense: Smith’s ability to dictate the game through his scoring and passing could be the difference-maker. If Rutgers can’t slow him down, Purdue’s shooters will get plenty of open looks from deep.
Health of Dylan Harper: Rutgers’ offense heavily depends on Harper’s ability to create plays. If he’s still under the weather, Rutgers may struggle to keep up with Purdue’s offensive firepower.
Three-Point Shooting: Purdue’s 39.6% accuracy from deep is a significant advantage. If they find their rhythm early, Rutgers could be playing catch-up all night.
Betting Predictions
Spread Pick (-2.0): Purdue’s balanced attack and Smith’s leadership make them the safer bet to cover the spread. Rutgers’ inconsistency and health concerns suggest they may struggle to keep pace.
Total Pick (149): With both teams capable of putting up points, the over is a solid play if Harper returns to form. However, if Rutgers can slow the pace, the under could come into play.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Braden Smith over 8.5 assists: Smith’s playmaking has been outstanding during Purdue’s winning streak.
Dylan Harper under 20.5 points: If Harper isn’t 100%, he may fall short of his scoring average.
Trey Kaufman-Renn over 17.5 points: Kaufman-Renn has been Purdue’s most consistent scorer and should get plenty of looks.
Final Score Prediction:
Purdue 77, Rutgers 70. The Boilermakers’ efficient shooting and Smith’s playmaking should be enough to secure the win and cover the spread, while Rutgers’ offense could struggle if Harper isn’t at full strength. Expect Purdue to control the tempo and add another conference victory to their resume.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
