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Seattle (16-3) at New England (17-3)
- When: Feb 8 2026, 6:30 PM
- Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- Where to watch: NBC
- Last Meeting: SEA 23-20, September 15th, 2024
Seattle vs New England Preview & Prediction
Spread: Seattle -4.5
Moneyline: Seattle (-240)
Total: 45.5
Seattle Seahawks Betting Breakdown
Seattle enters as a 4.5 point favorite with the total sitting at 45.5, and the betting market is clearly backing Sam Darnold. Earlier in the season, when Darnold threw four interceptions in a 21 to 19 loss to the Rams, Ernest Jones IV publicly defended him. That loyalty paid off. Darnold responded by erasing a 16 point fourth quarter deficit in a rematch win over Los Angeles and then delivered in a 31 to 27 NFC Championship victory.
Once viewed as a draft disappointment after going third overall in 2018, Darnold now has Seattle one win away from its second Lombardi Trophy. He is surrounded by playmakers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba stretches the field, Kenneth Walker balances the offense, and the defense allowed the fewest points in the NFL. Leonard Williams, Ernest Jones IV, and Devon Witherspoon all earned second team All Pro honors, while Nick Emmanwori had a standout rookie campaign.
Player prop pick: Sam Darnold over 230.5 passing yards.
Seattle will not hide Darnold in this matchup. If New England loads up to stop Walker, the intermediate and deep shots to Smith-Njigba open up. With projected volume near 30 plus attempts, clearing 231 yards is well within range.
New England Patriots Betting Breakdown
New England comes in as a 4.5 point underdog, but this is not the same team that posted back to back 4 and 13 seasons. First year coach Mike Vrabel quickly reshaped the culture, and Drake Maye has been the engine behind the turnaround.
The 23 year old, drafted third overall in 2024, has shown poise beyond his years. In the AFC Championship against Denver, he checked into a bootleg on third down late and sealed a 10 to 7 win in snowy conditions. That composure is a major reason New England is here.
Maye has TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield and Stefon Diggs outside. The defense has been dominant throughout the playoffs, giving bettors a strong case for a lower scoring script.
Player prop pick: Drake Maye over 220.5 passing yards.
As an underdog, game script likely forces Maye to throw into the fourth quarter. Even with Seattle’s strong defense, volume is king in prop betting. If he approaches 32 to 35 attempts, 221 yards becomes a realistic target, especially with Diggs capable of chunk gains.
Betting Outlook & Superbowl Expert Prediction
Seattle’s defense has been the most consistent unit on the field all season, and that matters on the biggest stage. Darnold has already proven he can answer adversity, and with Smith-Njigba and Walker supporting him, the Seahawks have more balance.
New England will compete and Maye will have moments, but over four quarters Seattle’s depth and defensive pressure should tilt the game but New England cover.
Final Score: Seahawks 24, Patriots 20
Lean: New England +4.5
Total: Under 45.5
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- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
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