St. Francis (16-17) vs Alabama State (19-15)
- When: Mar 18 2025, 6:40 PM
- Where: UD Arena, Dayton, OH, USA
- Where to watch: TruTV
First Four Matchup: Alabama State vs. Saint Francis (PA) – Betting Preview & Prediction
Alabama State (-4) | O/U: 139.0
The NCAA Tournament kicks off with a battle of No. 16 seeds, as Alabama State and Saint Francis (PA) square off in the First Four on Tuesday. The winner will earn the right to face No. 1 overall seed Auburn in the South Region’s first round on Thursday in Lexington, KY.
Both teams enter the tournament with momentum, but only one will punch their ticket to face the tournament’s top team. Let’s break down the matchup from a betting perspective and see where the best value lies.
Saint Francis (PA) Overview
Saint Francis (16-17) is making just its second NCAA Tournament appearance and its first since 1991. The Red Flash caught fire at the right time, winning six straight games, including a dramatic 46-43 upset over top-seeded Central Connecticut in the NEC Tournament final.
Head coach Rob Krimmel has been a part of the program for decades, first as a player and now as the leader on the sidelines. His team has embraced a gritty, defensive-minded approach that has allowed them to grind out low-scoring wins.
The Red Flash rely on guard Riley Parker, who leads the team with 13.4 points and 3.4 assists per game. Forward Valentino Pinedo (10.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) provides an inside presence, while Juan Cranford Jr. (10.0 PPG) adds balance to the offense.
Despite their late-season surge, Saint Francis has struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom nationally in field goal percentage. They’ll need to slow the pace and force Alabama State into a defensive battle to have a chance at advancing.
Alabama State Overview
Alabama State (19-15) enters the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011 after capturing the SWAC Tournament title with a 60-56 win over Jackson State. The Hornets have been on a roll, winning six straight and peaking at the right time.
Head coach Tony Madlock’s squad plays a more balanced game than their opponent, with multiple scoring threats and a slightly more efficient offense. His son, TJ Madlock, is a key contributor, averaging 12.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game.
The Hornets also feature a strong backcourt led by CJ Hines (14.4 PPG) and Amarr Knox (14.3 PPG, 1.7 SPG), who give Alabama State the ability to attack from the perimeter. Forward Jasteven Walker (0.8 BPG) anchors a defense that has shown resilience during this late-season run.
Alabama State’s late-season turnaround has been impressive, especially their ability to grind out wins against top SWAC competition. They also boast a win over Southern, the regular-season champions, which solidified their tournament credentials.
Betting Analysis & Prediction
Both teams enter on a hot streak, but Alabama State has been the more complete team down the stretch. Their ability to score in multiple ways gives them an edge over a Saint Francis squad that thrives in low-scoring battles.
Saint Francis will need to keep this game ugly to have a chance, but Alabama State’s backcourt should dictate the tempo. The Hornets’ superior athleticism and balanced scoring attack make them the better bet to cover the spread.
Final Score Prediction: Alabama State 71, Saint Francis 63
Best Bet: Alabama State -4
Lean: Under 139 (Saint Francis struggles to score efficiently)
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
