Tampa Bay (22-15-2) at New Jersey (25-15-4)
- When: Jan 11 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ, USA
- TV: MSGSN
New Jersey comes into Saturday’s matchup as the -147 moneyline favorite, with the total set at 6.0 goals, as they look to bounce back at home against the Tampa Bay Lightning after a tough stretch of games.
Game Preview & Betting Analysis
The Devils boast one of the NHL’s most dangerous power plays, converting at 28% on the season, but their man-advantage unit has cooled off recently. After a dominant December, New Jersey has struggled, going just 1-for-16 on power-play opportunities in their last seven games, resulting in a 2-4-1 record during that span. Their recent 3-2 overtime loss to the New York Rangers saw them go 0-for-4 on the power play, despite even-strength goals from Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.
Coach Sheldon Keefe emphasized that while there were positives in the Rangers game, the special teams’ performance remains a concern. “Special teams make a huge difference, especially in close games. We need to capitalize when given the chance,” Keefe said.
Key Trends & Matchups
Tampa Bay’s Penalty Kill Dominance: The Lightning have been exceptional on the penalty kill, going 17-for-17 over their last eight games while scoring four shorthanded goals in that stretch. This could spell trouble for a Devils team struggling to convert on the power play.
Brayden Point’s Impact: Tampa Bay is 15-5-1 when Point finds the back of the net, making him a pivotal piece of their offensive success. Point scored a key power-play goal late in the third period during Tampa Bay’s 4-1 win over Boston on Thursday.
New Jersey’s Power Play Slump: After scoring three power-play goals in a 5-0 blowout of the Rangers in late December, the Devils have been ice-cold with the man advantage. Tampa Bay’s aggressive penalty kill will challenge their ability to get back on track.
Recent Performances
The Lightning are riding high after back-to-back wins over playoff contenders Carolina and Boston. Tampa Bay’s win over the Bruins featured late-game heroics, with two goals in the final 92 seconds to seal the victory. This marked their second straight nail-biter after edging Carolina 3-2 with Point scoring the game-winner in the final minute.
The Devils, on the other hand, are hoping a return home after a two-week road trip will help them snap their slump. Despite their recent skid, they’ve shown flashes of their early-season dominance when they went 5-1-0 in early December, fueled by a hot power play.
Betting Predictions
Moneyline Pick (-147): New Jersey has struggled but remains lethal at home. Their offensive firepower, led by Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, makes them a solid pick despite recent setbacks. However, Tampa Bay’s strong form and penalty-killing prowess could make this closer than expected.
Total Pick (6.0): The total hinges on whether the Devils’ power play rebounds. If Tampa Bay’s defense continues to shut down opponents, the under is a smart play. However, if New Jersey can find some rhythm on the man advantage, the over could easily hit.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Brayden Point anytime goal scorer: With Tampa Bay thriving when Point scores, this is a solid bet at good value.
Jack Hughes over 1.5 points: Hughes remains a dynamic offensive threat and could be due for a breakout game.
Lightning penalty kill over 1.5 successful kills: Given their recent success on the penalty kill, this is a strong prop play.
Final Score Prediction:
Tampa Bay 3, New Jersey 2. The Lightning’s penalty kill and Point’s clutch performances make them a dangerous underdog. While New Jersey is capable of turning things around at home, Tampa Bay’s recent consistency gives them the edge in what could be a tightly contested game.
- NHL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
