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Tampa Bay (7-7-0) at Carolina (7-7-0)
- When: Dec 21 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
- Where to watch: FOX
- Last Meeting: TB 48-14, December 29th, 2024
Tampa Bay vs Carolina Preview & Prediction
Spread: Tampa Bay -3.0
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-145)
Total: 45.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Breakdown
Baker Mayfield continues to make Carolina regret moving on. Since leaving the Panthers, Mayfield is a perfect 4-0 against his former team and has helped steer Tampa Bay to consecutive NFC South titles in 2023 and 2024. Now he heads back to Charlotte with the division lead hanging in the balance.
Tampa Bay enters this matchup tied at 7-7 but sits in better shape due to stronger results against common opponents. That edge matters with these two teams meeting twice over the final three weeks. The Buccaneers let a golden opportunity slip away last week, blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in a 29-28 loss to Atlanta. The collapse sparked a blunt and heated response from head coach Todd Bowles, who challenged his locker room to clean things up fast.
The response this week has reportedly been strong, and Tampa Bay also welcomes a fully intact receiving corps. For the first time all season, Baker Mayfield had his top four wideouts available. Mike Evans returned in a big way, posting a massive yardage day, while Jalen McMillan made his season debut. Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. round out a passing attack that looks far more dangerous when healthy.
Evans, in particular, has a long history of torching Carolina. He consistently rises to the occasion in this matchup and remains a difficult cover due to his size and physical style. With the Buccaneers favored by 3.0, Tampa Bay’s offensive ceiling is clearly higher if Mayfield is protected.
The one concern for the Bucs is run defense. While still ranked inside the top ten, Tampa Bay has been leaking yardage on the ground lately. That could keep Carolina competitive early, but the Bucs’ experience and passing firepower give them a clear edge late.
Carolina Panthers Betting Breakdown
Carolina had a chance to grab control of the NFC South last week and let it slip. A fourth-quarter breakdown against New Orleans resulted in a 20-17 loss to the Saints, a setback that dropped the Panthers out of the driver’s seat and put pressure back on an already young roster.
This team is still learning how to stack success. Under second-year head coach Dave Canales, Carolina has shown flashes with strong wins over quality opponents, only to follow them with frustrating losses. Consistency remains the missing ingredient.
The Panthers’ best path to success comes on the ground. Carolina ranks near the top ten in rushing offense and has repeatedly gashed defenses this season, including multiple games with massive rushing totals. If they can control the clock and keep Mayfield off the field, they can shorten the game and stay within the number.
Offensive line health is a concern. Starting left tackle Ickey Ekwonu is dealing with a knee issue and is considered day to day. If he cannot go, Carolina would be forced into yet another offensive line combination, something that has already been a season-long problem. That instability could be costly against a Tampa Bay defense that thrives on pressure when opponents fall behind.
Carolina has talent, but inexperience has shown up in late-game situations. With the division on the line, this is another major test of their maturity.
Betting Outlook and Prediction
Tampa Bay is favored by 3.0 with the total sitting at 45.5. The Panthers’ rushing attack should keep this game competitive early, but Tampa Bay has the more reliable quarterback, the deeper offense, and the clearer sense of urgency after last week’s collapse.
Expect Carolina to hang around for a while before Tampa Bay pulls ahead in the second half. The Buccaneers’ ability to exploit matchups through the air should be the deciding factor.
Final Score: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 23
Lean: Tampa Bay -3.0
Total: Over 45.5
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
