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Tennessee (5-1) at Alabama (5-1)
- When: Oct 18 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
- Where to watch: ABC
- Last Meeting: Tennessee 24-17, October 19th, 2024
(11) Tennessee vs (6) Alabama Preview & Prediction
Spread: Alabama -9.5
Moneyline: Alabama (-330)
Total: 59.0
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Outlook
After a shaky opener against Florida State, Alabama has flipped the script and is back to looking like a powerhouse. The Crimson Tide (5-1, 3-0 SEC) enter this rivalry matchup red-hot, winners of five straight and the current pace-setters in the SEC.
Head coach Kalen DeBoer’s team has shown resilience, gutting out close road wins over Georgia and Missouri while holding firm at home. Their defense, though not vintage Nick Saban-style dominance, has been opportunistic, forcing 11 turnovers while giving up just two. That discipline has turned close calls into wins.
Quarterback Ty Simpson has been at the heart of it all. The Heisman-hopeful has been surgical, completing over 70% of his passes for 1,678 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just one interception. His ability to stay poised under pressure has given Alabama’s offense the balance it needed early in the season.
Simpson’s connection with wideout Jermaine Burton continues to be electric, and this week’s prop pick leans on that chemistry: Ty Simpson to Record 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-135) feels like the kind of bet that could cash before the fourth quarter.
With the nation’s longest home winning streak now at 15 games, Alabama returns to Tuscaloosa with swagger. Expect them to control time of possession and test Tennessee’s secondary with aggressive downfield strikes.
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Outlook
The Volunteers (5-1, 2-1 SEC) have shown fight since their heartbreaking overtime loss to Georgia, bouncing back with three straight wins, including last week’s nail-biter over Arkansas. But if Tennessee wants to keep their SEC title hopes alive, they’ll need to find another gear on both sides of the ball in Tuscaloosa.
Quarterback Joey Aguilar has been solid, throwing for 1,680 yards and 14 touchdowns, but his five interceptions have come at costly times. Tennessee’s offense thrives on tempo, yet turnovers and red-zone inefficiency could be fatal against Alabama’s opportunistic defense.
Defensively, the Vols’ main challenge will be generating pressure without leaving deep coverage vulnerable, something no one’s managed consistently against Simpson this season.
For player props, the value pick lands with Aguilar’s mobility: Joey Aguilar Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-110) makes sense, especially if Alabama’s front seven forces him to escape the pocket.
Prediction Breakdown
The Crimson Tide’s balance and home dominance give them the upper hand in this classic SEC rivalry. Expect Tennessee to hang around early, but Alabama’s offensive execution and turnover advantage should seal it late.
Final Score: Alabama 34, Tennessee 24
Lean: Alabama -9.5
Total: Under 59.0
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
