Just about everything that could go right went right in Steve Sarkisian’s first year at the helm of the vaunted Texas Longhorns- for about five games. They were 4-1 and had come off two straight big wins over in state rivals, Texas Tech and TCU.
From there, just about everything that could go wrong did. The team lost it’s next six in a row, including three straight to their toughest rivals in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor.
The season turned into a 5-7 disaster, reminiscent of the Charlie Strong era.
Good thing Texas’ reputation didn’t take a lethal hit. Perhaps it’s all the NIL money that student athletes stand to gain. But in spite of last season’s misery, the Longhorns were one of the big winners in both recruiting and the transfer portal.
At the head of the list is 2021’s number one recruit, QB Quinn Ewers transferring in from Ohio State, hopefully ready for a full-time job after not playing since he was a junior in high school in 2020.
Not far behind is a top-five recruiting class set to shore up all the weak spots last year where the blocking failed as did getting after the quarterback.
And right up there is a new cast of supporting coaches that includes veteran royalty in Gary Patterson and up and comers like Tashard Choice (former Dallas Cowboys RB and Georgia Tech coach) and Brennan Marion (who coached Jordan Addison in Pittsburgh last season).
What more, they also have a ton of talent returning at key positions, including one of the best running backs in the nation in Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Xavier Worthy.
Now all they have to do is realize all that potential and rise up in the biggest moments.
2022 Texas Longhorns NCAA Football Futures Odds
Odds to win the 2022-23 NCAA Championship: 40/1
Odds to win the 2022 Big 12 Conferences: +280
2022 Regular Season Win Total: Over 8½ (-114)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +800 | No -2000
2022 Heisman Contenders: Bijan Robinson +2000, Quinn Ewers +4000 & Xavier Worthy +30000
Official website: texassports.com
Twitter Account : @TexasFootball
Odds to win the 2022-23 NCAA Championship: 40/1
A lot will have to come together to make this long shot pick come true. And given how much work they have to do, this seems like a huge reach.
At the same time, there is as much NFL-caliber talent on this team as just about any in the nation not named Alabama or Georgia. That is also true with regards to the level of coaching. It also helps that the Longhorns have had a year to adjust to the new style of play brought in by Sarkisian.
We’ll know a lot more about the mental fortitude of this team after week two when they host Alabama. Put up a good fight and they will clearly be on everyone’s radar, but the odds will also come down significantly.
For now…
The Verdict: A tantalizing long shot pick
Odds to win the 2022 Big 12 Conferences: +280
Three Big-12 teams begin the season ranked in the top-12 in the nation and Texas won’t even start the year in the top-25. Of course, it’s not where they start, it’s where they finish that counts.
Texas will host #9 Oklahoma and #10 Baylor and visit #12 Oklahoma State. These are pretty short odds, the second best in the conference. As such they are overvalued at this number which considers them a favorite. As much talent as they have, they also have a history of failing to meet the moment.
The Verdict: Skip it
2022 Regular Season Win Total: Over 8½ (-114)
Taking the over makes sense if you believe that the talent level will finally rise to the occasion after several down seasons. Oklahoma has a new coach and lost several key parts. And at least Texas takes on Alabama at home to give them a fighting chance.
The point is, they have lots of dangerous opponents on the schedule, from the ranked ones mentioned above to C-USA champs UTSA, along with Texas Tech, Iowa State and West Virginia. But if you believe in the talent, this is a ten-win outfit.
The Verdict: Over 8.5
Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +800 | No -2000
When you see a +800 number for this bet and a +280 to win the Big-12 with all those top-12 teams, you see a disparity. They are overvalued at the latter number, but this is a tantalizing long shot pick. It’ll likely only happen if they are at most a one-loss team and only one SEC team makes the playoffs, but if they perform up to expectations that is their ceiling and these long odds offer a terrific payout.
The Verdict: Worth a small investment.
2022 Heisman Contenders: Bijan Robinson +2000, Quinn Ewers +4000 & Xavier Worthy +30000
Robinson is in the conversation as best running back in the country. A running back has only won one Heisman in the last 12 years. A better long shot pick is Ewers. If you believe in the team reaching its ceiling, it’s because this top prospect takes the team to the next level. Quarterbacks have also won the Heisman five of the last six years and 10 of the last 12.
Worthy at receiver is another super talented player who put up 981 yards and 12TDs and flashed a lot of big play ability. But a great season for him comes on the arm of Ewers.
The Verdict: Ewers and his redemption story is worth a small bet. Skip the others.
Odds According to Bovada as of August, 2022
Texas Longhorns 2022 Schedule
| SEASON | |||
| Date | Time | Opponent | TV |
| 3-Sep | 8:00 p.m. | Louisiana–Monroe* | LHN |
| 10-Sep | 12:00 p.m. | Alabama* | FOX |
| 17-Sep | 8:00 p.m. | UTSA* | LHN |
| 24-Sep | at Texas Tech | ||
| 1-Oct | West Virginia | ||
| 8-Oct | vs. Oklahoma | ABC | |
| 15-Oct | Iowa State | ||
| 22-Oct | at Oklahoma State | ||
| 5-Nov | at Kansas State | ||
| 12-Nov | TCU | ||
| 19-Nov | at Kansas | ||
| 25-Nov | Baylor | ABC/ESPN | |
Home stadium: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
*Non-conference game – All times are in Eastern time
Bet on the Texas Longhorns 2022 Season at Bovada Sportsbook.
