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Toronto (2-0) at NY Yankees (0-2)
- When: Oct 7 2025, 8:08 PM
- Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Toronto vs NY Yankees MLB Playoff Preview & Pick
Moneyline: NY Yankees -156
Spread: NY Yankees -1.5 (+139)
Total: 8.0
Toronto Blue Jays Outlook
The Toronto Blue Jays have made New York’s pitching staff look like batting practice targets through two games, and they’re not showing any signs of slowing down. After pounding New York’s pitching staff for 23 runs and eight homers across two games, Toronto now stands one win away from pulling off a stunning sweep and punching their ticket to the ALCS.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been an unstoppable force, going 6-for-9 with two bombs and six RBIs. The Yankees have thrown everything but the bullpen cart at him, and he’s still punishing mistakes with laser-like precision. Daulton Varsho has matched the energy, smacking two homers and going 6-for-8, while Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and even Ernie Clement have joined the home-run parade.
The key for Toronto has been their balance, they’re not just swinging for the fences, they’re grinding at-bats and punishing every misplaced pitch. Manager John Schneider’s mantra of “put the ball in play” has turned into an offensive avalanche.
Right-hander Shane Bieber takes the mound for Game 3, hoping to keep the Yankees’ lineup guessing with his sharp command and mix of breaking pitches. He was solid late in the year with a 3.57 ERA and gives Toronto a legitimate shot to close things out on the road.
Blue Jays Player Prop Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases — Guerrero is locked in, and with Rodon’s history against him (10-for-17), expect more hard contact and at least one extra-base hit.
Blue Jays Betting Angle: Toronto has won 10 of its last 15 against New York and has crushed left-handed pitching all year. The Jays have the confidence, momentum, and lineup depth to finish the job.
New York Yankees Outlook
The Yankees are reeling and they know it. Their pitching has been a full-blown disaster, posting a series ERA north of 12, while their bullpen has been working overtime trying to clean up mess after mess. Now, back home at Yankee Stadium, it’s all on Carlos Rodon to keep their season alive.
Rodon has been New York’s most trusted starter, but his history against Toronto isn’t ideal. He’s 2–3 with a 4.72 ERA lifetime versus the Jays and has been torched by Guerrero Jr. multiple times. He’ll need to find his fastball command early or risk another early exit.
The Yankees’ bats haven’t been completely silent, Aaron Judge is 4-for-7 and Cody Bellinger has the team’s lone home run, but they’ve been stranded far too often. New York can’t afford to waste runners against a Toronto lineup that’s treating every mistake like batting practice.
Yankees Player Prop Pick: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases — He’s swinging a hot bat despite limited help, and he tends to rise under pressure in the Bronx.
Yankees Betting Angle: The Yankees have historically responded well when facing elimination at home, but their current pitching issues and lack of clutch hitting make them a tough sell as -156 favorites.
Prediction
The Yankees may be favored on paper, but Toronto’s bats are in another universe right now. With Bieber keeping things steady and the lineup continuing to feast, it’s hard to see New York surviving this slugfest. The Blue Jays complete the sweep and silence the Bronx.
Score Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Yankees 4
Pick: Toronto (+133)
Total: Over 8.0 (-105)
- MLB Playoff Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
