Troy (23-10) vs Kentucky (22-11)
- When: Mar 21 2025, 7:10 PM
- Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
NCAA Tournament Preview: Kentucky vs. Troy — Betting Breakdown & Player Prop Picks
Line: Kentucky -11.0 | Total: 151.5
Kentucky Wildcats (22-11, SEC)
Mark Pope enters his first NCAA Tournament as Kentucky’s head coach, looking to avoid the same fate that haunted the Wildcats as a No. 3 seed last year—an opening-round upset. The 2024 sting from a shocking loss to 14th-seeded Oakland still lingers, but this year’s roster is aiming for redemption, powered by one of the nation’s most explosive offenses.
The Wildcats average 85.3 points per game, ranking among the best nationally, and have knocked down a program-record 317 threes this season. They’ve hit 10+ three-pointers in 18 contests, a stat that will be pivotal against Troy’s aggressive defense. Kentucky’s scoring punch is led by Otega Oweh (16.2 PPG), with Lamont Butler and Koby Brea chipping in 11.5 each.
With point guard Jaxson Robinson out for the season, expect Butler to handle more ball-distribution duties. Player props worth targeting include Oweh’s points over and Brea over on made threes, considering Troy’s tendency to sag on perimeter defense to crash the glass.
Despite some defensive inconsistencies, Kentucky’s firepower and tournament experience — with Butler bringing Final Four pedigree — make them a serious threat in March.
Key Betting Trend: Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.
Troy Trojans (23-10, Sun Belt Champions)
The Sun Belt champs enter this matchup riding a six-game win streak and coming off an impressive comeback win over Arkansas State in their conference tournament. Troy isn’t just happy to be here — they’ve got some tools to give Kentucky a scare.
Led by Tayton Conerway (14.3 PPG) — the Sun Belt Player of the Year — and a gritty supporting cast that includes Myles Rigsby (12.0 PPG) and rebound machine Thomas Dowd (6.8 RPG), Troy thrives on hustle and disruption. They force turnovers and rank top-25 nationally in offensive rebounding.
The Trojans average 73.9 points per game and have a +5.6 rebounding margin. To keep this close, they’ll need to dominate second-chance points and contest Kentucky’s perimeter looks. Look for Dowd’s rebound over and Conerway’s points over as solid player prop targets in what’s expected to be a high-scoring affair.
Key Betting Trend: Troy is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and has covered in five straight.
Prediction & Best Bets
This one sets up as a potential fireworks show, with both teams capable of pushing the tempo and hitting from deep. Kentucky has the edge in talent and experience, especially with Butler back in the mix. However, Troy’s rebounding and turnover pressure should keep things tight for stretches.
Final Score Prediction:
Kentucky 83, Troy 70
Best Bets:
Spread: Kentucky -11
Total: Over 151.5
Player Props:
Oweh Over 18.5 Points
Brea Over 2.5 – 3 points
Dowd Over 6.5 Rebounds
Conerway Over 16.5 Points
Expect the Wildcats to bounce back with authority and remind the nation why they’re not to be overlooked in March.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
