- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
USC (12-2) vs Michigan State (12-2)
- When: Jan 5 2026, 8:30 PM
- Where: Jack Breslin Students Events Center, East Lansing, MI, USA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
(24) USC vs (9) Michigan State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Michigan State -11.5
Moneyline: Michigan State (-769)
Total: 151.0
Michigan State Spartans Betting Breakdown
Michigan State got a harsh reminder that conference play has no mercy. After rolling through softer opponents, the Spartans ran into a grinder on the road and paid for late game mistakes. Poor shooting was manageable. Sloppy execution was not. A season high turnover count told the story, and Tom Izzo was not thrilled with the lack of toughness when it mattered most.
Back home, expect a response. Izzo teams rarely stack flat performances, especially after being called out publicly. The Spartans still defend at a high level and typically take better care of the ball in East Lansing. Offensively, the pace should improve, and the crowd usually fuels more disciplined stretches on both ends.
This is a spot where Michigan State typically leans into physical defense, cleaner possessions, and controlled tempo early before pulling away late.
USC Trojans Betting Breakdown
USC arrives licking its wounds after a rough outing against elite competition. The Trojans never found rhythm, struggled to shoot, and were overwhelmed in transition. Turnovers piled up quickly, and once the game sped up, USC had no answers.
The road trip has been brutal, and the roster is thinner than it was a month ago. Without one of their top scoring options, the offensive load has shifted heavily to Chad Baker Mazara. When he is efficient, USC can compete. When defenses force him into tough decisions, the offense stalls.
Fatigue is also a factor. Long Midwest travel, physical games, and short turnarounds are not ideal when facing a disciplined home team.
Expert Final Score Prediction
This matchup sets up well for a Michigan State bounce back. The Spartans should dictate physicality, force USC into half court possessions, and capitalize on mistakes. USC can score in spurts, but sustaining that for forty minutes on the road is a tall task.
Expect Michigan State to tighten defensively, limit turnovers, and gradually create separation in the second half.
Final Score: Michigan State 82, USC 67
Lean: Michigan State -11.5
Total: Under 151.0
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
