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Utah (18-39) at Houston (34-20)
- When: Feb 23 2026, 9:30 PM
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
- TV: SCHN
Utah vs Houston Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -13.0
Moneyline: Houston (-850)
Total: 229
What’s up, it’s Liev out here in California. When I see a 13-point spread in the NBA, my first instinct is simple: is this a mismatch, or is Vegas daring you to take the favorite? Let’s break it down.
Houston Rockets Breakdown
Houston comes in licking its wounds after blowing an 18-point fourth-quarter lead in a 108-106 loss to the Knicks. That’s not just a bad beat. That’s a structural issue. The Rockets scored just 15 points in the final quarter after putting up 70 across the second and third. Late-game offense continues to be their Achilles’ heel.
Even so, this team is eighth in the league in offensive rating at 116.8 per 100 possessions. Kevin Durant remains the steady closer, and Alperen Sengun continues to facilitate from the elbow and post. Without a traditional point guard after Fred VanVleet’s knee injury, Houston has split playmaking between Durant, Sengun, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard. The results have been inconsistent, but the ceiling is high.
Amen Thompson finished with 12 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists against New York, but defenses are sagging off him and daring him to shoot. If Houston adjusts quicker in their second actions, they can avoid those stagnant stretches.
Against a turnover-prone Utah team, Houston’s athleticism and scoring depth should shine at home.
Player Prop Lean: Kevin Durant Over 25.5 Points
Durant’s usage spikes in games where Houston needs control. Against a defense that struggles in transition and ball security, expect volume and efficiency.
Utah Jazz Breakdown
Utah is young, talented, and occasionally chaotic. In their 123-114 loss to Memphis, they committed 24 turnovers that turned into 30 points the other way. That’s how you lose games before halftime.
Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George, who combine for 50.5 points per game, were sidelined in that contest. Markkanen is probable and George questionable here, but even if they suit up, chemistry and rhythm are issues.
Kyle Filipowski has quietly provided interior production and spacing. Against Memphis, the Jazz showed flashes offensively but lacked control. Houston thrives off mistakes, and if Utah gifts possessions, this spread could snowball.
Player Prop Lean: Kyle Filipowski Over 7.5 Rebounds
With Houston playing fast and Durant attacking, there should be rebounding opportunities. Filipowski’s length and positioning give him value on the glass.
Betting Prediction
Thirteen points is a big number. But stylistically, this is trouble for Utah. Houston pushes pace, forces mistakes, and has the scoring depth to extend runs. If the Rockets clean up their fourth-quarter execution, this could be comfortable.
The total at 229 suggests scoring, and Utah’s turnover issues could fuel easy buckets. I lean over if Utah keeps it competitive early.
Final Score: Rockets 123, Jazz 108
Lean: Houston -13.0
Total: Over 229.0
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
