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Vanderbilt (7-1) at Texas (6-2)
- When: Nov 1 2025, 12:00 PM
- Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- Where to watch: ABC
- Last Meeting: Texas 27-24, October 26th, 2024
(9) Vanderbilt vs (20) Texas Preview & Prediction
Spread: Texas -3.0
Moneyline: Texas (-165)
Total: 46.5
Texas Longhorns Betting Outlook
Texas returns to Austin after a grueling month on the road, where they capped off the trip with a dramatic 45-38 overtime win at Mississippi State. The big storyline this week centers around quarterback Arch Manning, who remains in concussion protocol after exiting on the first snap of overtime. Backup Matthew Caldwell stepped in cold and delivered the game-winning touchdown pass, proving he’s ready if called upon again.
The Longhorns have been resilient but inconsistent, winning three straight yet still struggling to play up to their full potential. Their comeback against Mississippi State was fueled by Manning’s best career outing, 346 total yards and four touchdowns, along with a game-changing punt return from Ryan Niblett. Coach Steve Sarkisian will demand sharper execution, especially against a Vanderbilt defense that’s shown the ability to grind out close games.
Whether it’s Manning or Caldwell at quarterback, Texas must limit turnovers and establish early offensive rhythm to keep pressure on Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Outlook
Vanderbilt enters this matchup riding a wave of confidence after taking down two straight ranked opponents at home, most recently a gritty 17-10 win over No. 15 Missouri. Quarterback Diego Pavia continues to lead the charge for the Commodores, relying on his dual-threat ability even when the passing numbers aren’t flashy. Despite a quiet stat line last week, just 129 passing yards and 20 rushing, Pavia made the winning play when it mattered most.
The Commodores are 7-1 for the first time since 1941, a testament to their discipline and physicality on both sides of the ball. Head coach Clark Lea has built a team that thrives in close contests and embraces adversity. Vanderbilt’s defense has been particularly stingy in red-zone situations, forcing opponents to settle for field goals rather than touchdowns.
However, this will be their toughest test yet, facing a Texas squad desperate to stay in the SEC title picture and potentially climb back into the playoff conversation.
Prediction & Betting Angle
This game carries major implications for both the SEC standings and playoff positioning. Texas has the edge in overall talent and home-field advantage, but Vanderbilt’s toughness and recent form make this a potential grind. Expect both defenses to set the tone early, keeping the score lower than recent Texas shootouts.
With questions surrounding Arch Manning’s availability, the Under 46.5 looks like the sharper play. Texas’ defense should hold firm at home, but Vanderbilt’s gritty style makes covering the full field goal spread a tough task.
Final Score: Texas 24, Vanderbilt 20
Lean: Texas -3.0
Total: Under 46.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
