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Virginia (25-3) vs Duke (26-2)
- When: Feb 28 2026, 12:00 PM
- Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(11) Virginia vs (1) Duke Preview & Prediction
Spread: Duke -10.0
Moneyline: Duke (-550)
Total: 141.5
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
If you are looking to maximize profit, you start by identifying leverage spots. This is one of them.
Duke enters as a 10 point favorite with the total set at 141.5 in a first place showdown inside the ACC. The Blue Devils sit at 26 and 2 overall and 14 and 1 in conference play. A win here locks up the top seed in the ACC tournament. Motivation is not an issue.
Duke just steamrolled Notre Dame 100 to 56 and dropped 54 in the first half alone. They have hit triple digits in back to back ACC games, which tells you the offense is clicking at the right time. But if you want sustainable betting value, you focus on defense. Jon Scheyer has made it clear that the edge on that end of the floor is what separates contenders from pretenders.
Freshman standout Cameron Boozer is the engine. He is averaging 22.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game and consistently dictates pace in the paint. When Duke wins, it is usually because Boozer establishes position early and forces double teams.
From a betting perspective, Duke at home has been ruthless. When they get rolling, they create separation fast. However, laying 10 in a matchup against a top tier opponent requires full control for 40 minutes.
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview
Virginia enters 25 and 3 overall and 13 and 2 in the ACC. They have won nine straight and just dismantled NC State 90 to 61. This team is peaking at the right time.
Unlike Duke, Virginia does not rely on one dominant scorer. Thijs De Ridder leads the way with 16.0 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but the Cavaliers win with balance and defensive structure. Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso protect the rim and combined for 12 blocked shots in their last outing. That interior resistance will be critical against Boozer.
Virginia is 8 and 1 on the road, which is important when evaluating a double digit spread. They have shown they can travel and stay composed in hostile environments.
This is not a team that gets blown out easily. They control tempo, limit possessions and force opponents into half court battles. That style directly impacts a total sitting at 141.5.
Prediction and Betting Outlook
Duke deserves to be favored at home. Their talent ceiling is higher and Boozer is the best player on the floor. But 10 points in a clash between two conference heavyweights feels inflated.
Virginia’s balance and defensive presence should keep this within range. Expect a competitive game deep into the second half before Duke pulls away late.
Duke wins the game and secures the top seed, but Virginia covers the 10 point spread. Lean slightly toward the under 141.5 as both teams emphasize defense in a high stakes setting.
Final Score: Duke 73, Virginia 67
Lean: Virginia +10.0
Total: Under 141.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
