We are officially more than one-third of the way through the 2023 NFL regular season. I hope you haven’t been betting a lot of overs this year. Games have been very low-scoring.
That made sense to me early on in the year, but I believe most of us thought the offenses would be picking things up by now.
So, if you lost some money on a few over bets like I did, I have a great way for you to make up for those losses and then some.
Last week, we had a teaser bet that came so close to hitting. One of our legs dominated, while the other had a chance, but the kick went wide right.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
What is a Teaser?
A teaser is a type of parlay bet where the bettor can adjust the odds to their favor by giving a team six more points to play with. That, as you would imagine, will lower the payout, but the odds on a two-team teaser are probably better than you think.
A bettor’s first issue with a teaser bet is deciding on only two teams. The betting odds are already designed to be inviting. Adding six more points to play with can give us a ton of confidence.
It’s like the menu at the Cheesecake Factory, too many options. So, how do you decide on your first teaser bet? Fortunately, there is already an effective basic strategy in place.
What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?
A basic strategy teaser is for NFL games. College football has higher point totals and much wider spreads. Stick to the NFL and keep it at only two teams. That will pay you out at (-120). Sportsbooks used to pay it out at (-110), but they were losing money.
The next rule is to tease teams through the key numbers of 3 and 7. More games end with a point differential of exactly 3 than any other number. The second most common number is 7.
For underdogs, we want to only choose teams with betting odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5) and tease them up through those key numbers to betting odds of (+7.5) to (+8.5).
To tease a favorite using the basic strategy, we look for teams with betting odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5) and tease them down through the key numbers to betting odds of (-2.5) to (-1.5).
Below, I’ve listed all of the games that we can tease using this basic strategy. There are several. So, we have the luxury this week of being picky.
Week 7 Potential Teaser Games
Miami Dolphins (+2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
These are two playoff teams and potential division winners. The moneyline for the Eagles is only (-130). So, giving the high-scoring Miami Dolphins another 6 points here seems like a safe play.
Yeah, well, this is the NFL, and things aren’t always as they seem. The Dolphins looked like crap against the Buffalo Bills. That defense had such a hard time getting stops in the red zone.
Statistically, the Dolphins’ defense has improved over the past three weeks, but they have not been playing offensive juggernauts.
One thing I don’t want to do is bet against the Philadelphia Eagles at home, coming off their first loss of the year.
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Here, we are looking at the Seattle Seahawks. They are also at home and just lost a close one, but are much bigger favorites than Philly playing the lowly Arizona Cardinals.
I teased the LA Rams down last week against the Cardinals, and they won outright, 26-9. We said that the Cardinals play hard in the first half and then chill and tank the second half. They were outscored 20-0 in the second half after leading through the first 30 minutes.
Here are the rest of their second halves: 6-17, 8-31, 6-14, 3-10. Oh, and in a game they somehow won over the Dallas Cowboys, they still only outscored them 7-6 in the second half.
It appears they want to compete and tank for hopefully the highest draft pick. We could be wrong about that, but I like Pete Carroll and the Seahawks, along with their 12th Man to win this one by probably 10 points.
Washington Commanders (-2) @ New York Giants (+2)
The Giants finally have some momentum, and the crowd is rejuvenated, making likely this a tough road game for the Washington Commanders.
We would still be putting our money behind one of the worst-performing teams in the NFL. There are better teaser options available.
Cleveland Browns (-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (+2)
I can see it now. We tease the home underdog Colts up to 8 points, and they lose 13-3. I want no part of betting against the Browns’ defense, and you shouldn’t either.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) @ New England Patriots (+8.5)
The Buffalo Bills have not been my darling this season. I have yet to get them right. We took their moneyline in the season opener. Aaron Rodgers goes down immediately, and the Bills still found a way to lose.
I bet the Dolphins against them. It was my worst point spread prediction of the season. Thankfully, we have yet to bet on the New England Patriots. Who would have thought they would be nearly double-digit dogs at home against anyone?
While Buffalo is the poster child for inconsistency this year, the Pats are the putrid. Their fans aren’t used to a team this bad. So, I don’t think they will be as firmly behind their team as they usually are. Fans will make the most noise as Mac walks off the field, following another three and out.
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
If a teaser leg was ever a trap, I think it would be Desmond Ridder and the Atlanta Falcons this week.
The defense has been super, but opposing defenses aren’t concerned with Ridder beating them. They load up against Bijan Robinson and the run game.
On the other side, Baker Mayfield is coming off of his worst start of the year. That guy can be pretty good or very bad, though. Inconsistency isn’t our friend.
Week 7 Basic Strategy Teaser Prediction
I usually prefer to tease up betting underdogs as opposed to teasing down the favorites, but we are betting against two of the worst teams in the league and with two likely playoff teams.
Teaser Pick: Seahawks (-1.5) & Bills (-2.5) at -120
