Xavier (21-11) vs Texas (19-15)
- When: Mar 19 2025, 9:10 PM
- Where: UD Arena, Dayton, OH, USA
- Where to watch: TruTV
Xavier vs. Texas – First Four Battle with NCAA Tournament Hopes on the Line
Xavier Favored by 2.5 | Total: 151.5
The First Four continues with a high-stakes clash as No. 11 Xavier squares off against No. 11 Texas in Dayton, Ohio for the chance to advance into the Midwest Region and take on No. 6 Illinois on Friday in Milwaukee.
Both teams had to wait anxiously on Selection Sunday after up-and-down seasons, but each enters hungry for a deep tournament run.
Xavier Musketeers
Path to the Tournament:
Xavier (21-11) secured an at-large bid after closing out the Big East regular season on a seven-game winning streak. Despite the late-season surge, they fell 89-87 to Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals, forcing them to sweat it out on Selection Sunday.
The Musketeers are essentially playing in their backyard, as their campus is just 50 miles from the University of Dayton Arena. That home-court feel could give them an edge in a high-energy environment.
Key Players & Betting Angles:
Zach Freemantle (F) – 17.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG
The Musketeers’ leading scorer and rebounder is ready for his first NCAA Tournament after missing last year’s Sweet 16 run due to injury.
Expect Freemantle to be Xavier’s go-to option inside, with potential double-double upside in this matchup.
Desmond Claude (G) – 15.7 PPG, 4.3 APG
The sophomore guard has been a consistent scoring threat and will be key in handling Texas’ defensive pressure.
Prediction for Xavier:
With momentum from their Big East finish and a near-home-court advantage, Xavier should come in confident. Their offense is clicking, and they have proven scorers who can take over when needed. If they control the boards and limit turnovers, the Musketeers should have the edge in this close battle.
Texas Longhorns
Path to the Tournament:
Texas (19-15) faced an uphill battle in a loaded SEC, finishing 6-12 in conference play. Their NCAA Tournament bid was far from guaranteed, but key wins over Vanderbilt and No. 14 Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament secured their place in the First Four.
The Longhorns are the first of a record 14 SEC teams to play in March Madness, and they traveled over 1,000 miles to Dayton—one of the longest distances of any First Four team.
Key Players & Betting Angles:
Tre Johnson (G) – 19.8 PPG
Texas’ leading scorer has been their most consistent offensive threat and should get plenty of shot attempts.
If Johnson gets hot from three-point range, he could swing the game in Texas’ favor.
Arthur Kaluma (F) – 12.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG
A key factor in rebounding and defensive presence, Kaluma could be a difference-maker on the glass if Texas wants to keep Xavier in check.
Prediction for Texas:
The Longhorns have battled elite competition in the SEC all season, which could work in their favor in a physical game. However, their inconsistent play and reliance on individual scorers could be a challenge against Xavier’s well-balanced attack.
Final Betting Take & Predictions:
Spread: Xavier -2.5 → Xavier has the momentum, home-court feel, and the deeper team. Expect them to cover in a close battle.
Total: Under 151.5 → Both teams can score, but Xavier’s defense and Texas’ occasional struggles from deep could push this game UNDER.
Best Player Prop Bet: Zach Freemantle Over 17.5 Points → The Xavier forward will be a key force and should hit his numbers against a Texas defense that struggles inside.
Look for Xavier to pull away late and punch their ticket to Milwaukee in a competitive matchup.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
