Baylor (20-14) vs Duke (32-3)
- When: Mar 23 2025, 2:40 PM
- Where: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Game Preview: Duke vs. Baylor
Spread: Duke -12.5
Total: 144.5
Region: East – Second Round
Duke Outlook
Record: 32-3
Tournament Seed: No. 1
Duke enters Sunday’s matchup riding high after an absolute dismantling of Mount St. Mary’s in the first round, cruising to a 93-49 victory. Star freshman Cooper Flagg returned from injury and didn’t miss a beat, logging 14 points in 22 minutes and proving he’s ready to go for the rest of the tournament.
The Blue Devils played clean, elite basketball — recording 21 assists to just two turnovers, the best assist-to-turnover ratio in school history. That level of offensive discipline, paired with Flagg’s return and the team’s deep, athletic core, makes them a serious threat to roll into the Sweet 16.
Duke’s 12-point spread is hefty, but when you consider how dominant they were in round one and how efficient they’ve been all season, it’s justified.
Betting Notes:
Duke is 5-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.
The Blue Devils have hit the Over in 6 of their last 8 games.
Duke has covered 4 of the last 5 games played at neutral sites.
Baylor Outlook
Record: 20-14
Tournament Seed: No. 9
Baylor scraped past Mississippi State 75-72 in a gritty first-round win, leaning on experience and late-game composure to survive and advance. Former Duke guard Jeremy Roach brings familiarity to the matchup — not just with his former team, but also with their systems and style of play. He and forward Norchad Omier (formerly of Miami) bring deep tournament experience to this Baylor squad.
While the Bears may not have the firepower or depth of Duke, their physicality, grit, and battle-tested veterans make them a tough out. However, they’ve struggled to put away teams and have been inconsistent against high-level competition all season.
Betting Notes:
Baylor is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against teams with a winning record.
6 of their last 8 games have gone Under the total.
Matchup Edge & Prediction
There’s a bit of a reunion narrative here, but once the ball tips, expect Duke to lean on superior athleticism, pace, and balance. Flagg’s return gives the Blue Devils another gear, and their guard play is clicking at just the right time.
Baylor may keep it competitive early thanks to their veterans and physical play, but Duke’s depth and offensive execution should eventually wear them down.
Pick: Duke -12.5
Lean: Over 144.5
Score Prediction: Duke 81, Baylor 66
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
