Baylor (9-3) at Iowa State (11-1)
- When: Jan 4 2025, 2:00 PM
- Where: James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Iowa State vs. Baylor Betting Preview and Prediction
Line: Iowa State -8.5 | Total: 152.0
When Baylor coach Scott Drew looks at Iowa State, he sees a mirror image of his own squad—loaded with depth, scoring threats, and toughness. As No. 3 Iowa State (11-1, 1-0 Big 12) hosts No. 25 Baylor (9-3, 1-0) for a Big 12 clash at Hilton Coliseum, the stakes are high for both programs.
Balanced Attack Meets Defensive Intensity
Iowa State has been dominant this season, winning nine games by double digits. Their only blemish came in a narrow 83-81 loss to Auburn. The Cyclones’ balanced offense features six players averaging double figures, led by Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones at 16.3 points per game. Forward Joshua Jefferson adds 11.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per contest, while Milan Momcilovic (11.1 PPG) and Tamin Lipsey (10.1 PPG) are also key contributors.
However, defense is where Iowa State thrives. Jefferson’s recent eight-steal performance highlighted the Cyclones’ ability to disrupt opposing offenses. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger praised Jefferson’s instincts and ability to finish defensive plays, emphasizing that Iowa State’s defensive IQ could be the X-factor in this matchup.
Baylor’s Offensive Firepower
Baylor enters the game riding a four-game winning streak, including an 81-56 thrashing of Utah. The Bears are paced by Norchard Omier, who is averaging a double-double with 16.1 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Omier also chips in defensively with 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per contest.
Baylor’s offense features five players averaging in double figures, with Robert Wright III (13.1 PPG), Jeremy Roach (12.5 PPG), and VJ Edgecombe (12.4 PPG) providing consistent scoring. The Bears’ ability to spread the floor and find open looks could be crucial against Iowa State’s stifling defense.
Road Struggles vs. Home Dominance
Iowa State is undefeated at home (7-0) and thrives in the electric Hilton Coliseum atmosphere. Conversely, Baylor has struggled on the road, going 0-2 in true away games this season. However, Drew believes Baylor’s tough nonconference road schedule at places like Gonzaga and UConn has prepared his team for the Big 12 gauntlet.
“Those environments have toughened us up,” Drew said. “Hilton Coliseum will be loud, but we’ve faced hostile arenas before.”
Betting Prediction:
Iowa State’s dominance at home and their ability to force turnovers make them a formidable opponent. Baylor’s scoring depth is impressive, but their road woes raise concerns. The spread of -8.5 reflects Iowa State’s strength on their home court, and they’ve proven capable of handling high-pressure games.
Look for Iowa State to capitalize on Baylor’s defensive lapses and build a comfortable lead. The total of 152.0 is high, but both teams’ offensive firepower suggests this could be a fast-paced contest. Expect Iowa State to cover the spread with a final score around Iowa State 83, Baylor 72, making the over a solid play.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
