Baylor (19-14) vs Mississippi St (21-12)
- When: Mar 21 2025, 12:15 PM
- Where: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Mississippi State vs. Baylor
Mississippi State -2.0 | Total: 145.5
The 8 vs. 9 matchups in the NCAA Tournament are always among the most competitive, and Friday’s East Region showdown between Mississippi State and Baylor is no exception. Both teams have faced struggles down the stretch, but with the stakes higher than ever, they’ll look to put it all together in Charlotte, North Carolina for a shot at advancing.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Looking to Shake Late-Season Struggles
Record: 21-12
Last Game: 75-67 loss vs. Kentucky (SEC Tournament)
Key Strength: Perimeter scoring & defense
Mississippi State enters the tournament having lost three of its last four games, raising concerns about momentum heading into this clash. Their only two wins in the past month came against LSU, a team that finished near the bottom of the SEC standings.
Josh Hubbard (18.7 PPG) is the offensive leader, and he already has NCAA Tournament experience after scoring 15 points in last year’s first-round loss to Michigan State. The Bulldogs will need a big performance from Hubbard to overcome their inconsistent offense.
Defensively, Mississippi State has been solid, but they’ll need to tighten up against Baylor’s perimeter shooting. The Bulldogs have struggled against elite competition, but if they can slow the tempo and control possessions, they’ll have a chance to grind out a win.
Baylor Bears: Seeking to Extend Their Tournament Streak
Record: 19-14
Last Game: 75-73 loss vs. Kansas State (Big 12 Tournament)
Key Strength: NCAA Tournament experience & offensive firepower
Unlike Mississippi State, Baylor has the luxury of experience on its side. The Bears are in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth straight season, and while they’ve lost four of their last six games, those defeats were by a combined 10 points, showing they’ve remained competitive.
Baylor’s offense is fueled by Norchad Omier (15.9 PPG, 10.9 RPG), a physical presence inside who helped lead Miami to the Final Four last year. VJ Edgecombe, the Big 12 Freshman of the Year, adds another scoring weapon, and Duke transfer Jeremy Roach brings deep postseason experience, having played in the Final Four in 2022 and the Elite Eight last season.
One big concern for Baylor is the absence of center Josh Ojianwuna, who was lost for the season due to a knee injury. The Bears have gone 4-6 without him, and their defense in the paint has suffered.
Betting Prediction & Total
Pick: Baylor ML (+110)
Total: Under 145.5
While Mississippi State enters as the slight favorite, Baylor has the edge in tournament experience and late-game execution. Mississippi State’s recent struggles, combined with Baylor’s ability to stay competitive even in losses, make the Bears the better value as an underdog.
The total looks a bit high, considering Mississippi State’s defensive tendencies and Baylor’s recent offensive inconsistency. Expect a gritty, low-scoring battle with Baylor making key plays late to secure the win and advance.
Final Score Prediction: Baylor 68, Mississippi State 64
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
