- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Boston (89-73) at NY Yankees (94-68)
- When: Sep 30 2025, 6:08 PM
- Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx
- Where to watch: ESPN
Boston vs NY Yankees MLB Playoff Preview & Pick
Moneyline: NY Yankees -130
Spread: NY Yankees -1.5 (+160)
Total: 7.0
New York Yankees Betting Outlook
The Yankees made a big offseason splash by signing Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million deal, and he delivered immediately. Fried anchored the rotation with 19 wins, stabilizing the staff after Gerrit Cole’s injury. He closed the regular season with a 6-0 run and a sparkling 1.55 ERA, setting the tone for October.
Fried has pitched well against Boston, posting a 1.96 ERA over three starts this year and holding their top hitters in check, with the exception of Alex Bregman, who has hit him hard. Still, Fried’s postseason pedigree, including a World Series win with Atlanta, makes him the clear ace New York needed.
The Yankees’ lineup remains dangerous but hit just .255 against left-handed starters this season, something to monitor against Boston’s Garrett Crochet. Aaron Judge will have his hands full but remains the heartbeat of the offense at Yankee Stadium.
Player Prop Pick – Yankees: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Home Runs – Judge has struggled against Crochet at times but his power in Yankee Stadium under playoff lights makes him a prime long-ball candidate.
Boston Red Sox Betting Outlook
Boston struck gold with Garrett Crochet, acquired from the White Sox in December. He quickly became their ace, winning 18 games and leading the majors with 255 strikeouts. Crochet enters this series on a four-game winning streak and has dominated the Yankees with 39 strikeouts across four matchups.
He’s handled Aaron Judge surprisingly well, striking him out 10 times in 15 at-bats, though Judge still tagged him for two homers. Crochet’s ability to neutralize New York’s power bats is the key if Boston wants to advance.
Offensively, Alex Bregman has been the Yankees’ toughest puzzle, owning a 5-for-9 lifetime mark against Fried. His presence in the middle of the order gives Boston a legitimate counterpunch to Fried’s dominance.
Player Prop Pick – Red Sox: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases – Bregman has consistently hit Fried well and should see opportunities to generate extra-base power in this matchup.
MLB Expert Betting Prediction
Two elite left-handers headline a classic Yankees–Red Sox October showdown. Both Fried and Crochet are capable of delivering gems, and the total of 7.0 reflects the expectation of a pitcher’s duel.
With home-field advantage and Fried’s postseason track record, New York holds the slight edge in what should be a nail-biter.
Score Prediction: Yankees 3, Red Sox 2
Pick: NY Yankees (-130)
Total: Under 7.0 (-115)
- MLB Playoff Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
