Buffalo (13-4) at Kansas City (15-2)
- When: Jan 26 2025, 6:30 PM
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Where to watch: CBS
Last Matchup:
BUF 30-21, November 17th, 2024
Game Preview
Kansas City is favored by 2.0, with the total set at 48.5, in what promises to be another classic showdown between two of the NFL’s premier teams: the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. These two have clashed seven times over the past four years, building a fierce rivalry that’s become must-watch football. While Buffalo has taken the regular-season edge, Kansas City owns the postseason matchups, winning all three, including a thrilling overtime victory in 2021.
Chiefs Overview:
Kansas City enters Sunday night’s AFC Championship game at Arrowhead Stadium chasing a third straight Lombardi Trophy. Patrick Mahomes, already a two-time MVP, leads an offense packed with weapons like Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, and Isiah Pacheco. The Chiefs’ defense, featuring Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie, will need to step up as they face a Buffalo squad that knows how to score.
The Chiefs are riding high after a commanding win over Houston last weekend, where they tallied eight sacks—second most in franchise playoff history. But while their pass rush shined, the challenge of bringing down Josh Allen looms large; Kansas City failed to sack him in their Week 11 loss to Buffalo.
Kansas City also boasts a strong turnover game. They’ve gone plus-11 in playoff turnover differential and haven’t given up the ball since their Week 11 meeting with Buffalo. Mahomes stressed the importance of ball security: “Winning the turnover battle is crucial, especially against a team like Buffalo.”
Bills Overview:
Buffalo, led by MVP candidate Josh Allen, is desperate to break its postseason curse against Kansas City. Despite multiple playoff losses to the Chiefs in recent years, the Bills remain dangerous, thanks to stars like Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Von Miller, and Gregory Rousseau. Allen, who’s already set a rookie QB rushing record with 891 yards, leads the playoffs in passing with 567 yards over two games.
The Bills boast the league’s best turnover differential (+24) and have converted 72.7% of fourth-down attempts this season, ranking second in the NFL. Sean McDermott, often conservative in past seasons, has shown a willingness to take calculated risks when it matters most.
Buffalo’s defense will also benefit from the return of key players like Von Miller, but they’ll need to find a way to slow down Mahomes and Kelce. In their Week 11 win over Kansas City, Buffalo’s defense forced turnovers and capitalized on Mahomes’ mistakes.
Key Matchups:
Josh Allen vs. Kansas City’s Defense: Allen’s ability to extend plays with his legs and arm makes him one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league. Kansas City’s defense must contain him, especially on third downs, where Allen thrives.
Mahomes vs. Buffalo’s Secondary: Mahomes will look to exploit Buffalo’s defense, but the Bills’ league-leading turnover differential could make things tricky.
Run Game: Both teams feature strong running games, with Pacheco for the Chiefs and Cook for the Bills. Whichever team establishes the ground game could control the clock and pace of play.
Prediction:
This game is as evenly matched as it gets, but Kansas City’s home-field advantage and postseason experience give them a slight edge. Mahomes has been nearly unstoppable in AFC Championship games, and his chemistry with Kelce should prove critical in high-pressure moments.
Buffalo will keep this one close, especially with Allen’s dual-threat ability and a defense that can generate turnovers. However, Kansas City’s playoff pedigree and ability to make big plays late will shine through.
Pick: Kansas City -2.0
Total: Over 48.5 – Expect a high-scoring affair with both teams trading punches throughout the game.
Props to Watch:
Travis Kelce Anytime TD – Kelce remains Mahomes’ most reliable red-zone target.
Josh Allen Rushing Yards Over – Allen’s legs will be a key weapon in keeping Buffalo’s offense moving.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Over – Expect Mahomes to air it out in a tight, high-scoring game.
In what should be another thriller in this budding rivalry, the Chiefs take a close win and advance to their third straight Super Bowl.
- NFL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
