Florida (25-4) at Alabama (23-6)
- When: Mar 5 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN2
Florida vs. Alabama: High-Stakes SEC Showdown with Tournament Seeding Implications
Alabama is favored by 3.5, and the total is set at 179.0.
With the SEC Tournament approaching and a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on the line, No. 5 Florida and No. 7 Alabama are set to clash in a pivotal battle Wednesday night in Tuscaloosa. Both teams are tied for second place in the conference at 12-4, with only two games remaining in the regular season. A victory here could put either team in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament and significantly boost their NCAA Tournament resume.
Florida Gators
The Gators have been rolling, winning 10 of their last 12 games, and they enter this contest fresh off an impressive 89-70 home victory over then-No. 12 Texas A&M. Will Richard has been the X-factor for Florida lately, averaging 27.5 points over his last two games while shooting an absurd 20-of-30 from the field and 11-of-20 from beyond the arc.
Richard’s shooting surge has complemented Florida’s balanced scoring attack, which features Walter Clayton Jr. (16.9 PPG) and Alijah Martin (14.7 PPG). The Gators are lethal from deep, with three players—Clayton (77 threes), Richard (61 threes), and Martin (63 threes)—all capable of catching fire from long range.
Florida swept Alabama last season, winning 105-87 at home and following that up with a 102-88 rout in the SEC Tournament. The Gators are playing their best basketball at the right time and will be eager to prove they can handle Alabama again, even on the road.
Key Betting Trends for Florida:
✅ 10-2 SU in their last 12 games
✅ Covered the spread in 6 of their last 9 games
✅ Won 2 straight against Alabama by double digits
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama looked poised to control the race for the No. 2 seed until a 79-76 collapse against Tennessee on Saturday. The Tide led by four points with just 36 seconds left but failed to close the game, ultimately falling on a last-second three-pointer.
The loss was Alabama’s third in its last five games, a stark contrast to their previous seven-game winning streak. Head coach Nate Oats took responsibility for the late-game meltdown, saying, “We work on end-of-game situations in practice, and I was not good for the last 30 seconds.”
Despite the recent struggles, Mark Sears has remained a force, averaging 27.5 PPG over his last four contests while knocking down 17-of-40 (42.5%) from deep. He leads the team in scoring at 19.1 PPG and has been the most reliable offensive weapon for Alabama.
Another key player for the Crimson Tide is Chris Youngblood, who exploded for 27 points and seven threes in Alabama’s 111-73 thrashing of Mississippi State but struggled against Tennessee, scoring just two points. Alabama will need Youngblood and sharpshooter Aden Holloway (12.0 PPG, 74 threes) to step up against a Florida squad that can match them shot-for-shot from deep.
Key Betting Trends for Alabama:
✅ 15-1 SU at home this season
✅ Covered 8 of their last 10 at home
✅ Leads the SEC in three-pointers made per game
Final Prediction & Betting Analysis
This matchup sets up as an offensive shootout, with both teams excelling in perimeter scoring and fast-paced play. Alabama has been dominant at home, but Florida is playing with confidence and has already taken down elite SEC competition. The Gators also have recent success against Alabama, winning both meetings convincingly last season.
Florida has shown they can keep up with Alabama’s tempo, and given the Crimson Tide’s struggles in closing out games lately, this could be another spot where the Gators pull off a big road win. Expect a close, high-scoring battle where the underdog has serious value.
🔥 Betting Pick: Florida ML (+145)
🔥 Projected Score: Florida 91, Alabama 88
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
