Houston (10-7-0) at Kansas City (15-2-0)
- When: Jan 18 2025, 4:30 PM
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Where to watch: ABC/ESPN
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Moneyline
Houston Texans +390
Kansas City Chiefs -550
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread
Houston Texans 9.0 (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs -9.0 (-105)
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Total
Over 41.5 (-110)
Under 41.5 (-110)
- Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
Key Players:
Houston: C.J. Stroud
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes
Team Stats
| Texans | Chiefs | |
| 11-7 | Record | 15-2 |
| 5-4 | Away & Home | 8-0 |
| 8-8-2 | ATS | 8-9-0 |
| 6-10-2 | O/U | 7-10-0 |
Last Matchup:
KC 27-19, December 21st, 2024
Game Preview
Saturday’s AFC divisional matchup features the Kansas City Chiefs as 9-point favorites against the Houston Texans, with the total set at 41.5. This game brings plenty of intrigue as the Chiefs aim to kickstart another Super Bowl run, while the Texans hope to pull off a major upset and advance to the AFC Championship for the first time.
The Chiefs (15-2) have had a lengthy rest since clinching the AFC’s top seed, with many starters sitting out in Week 18. Patrick Mahomes and his star-studded supporting cast, including Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, should be fresh and ready to roll. However, the extended break could bring some rust. Kansas City’s offensive line has been a point of concern all season, particularly protecting Mahomes’ blind side. Adjustments here will be critical in ensuring the offense clicks.
Houston (11-7) enters on a high note, having dominated the Chargers in the Wild Card round. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to shine, showing poise beyond his years. Wide receiver Nico Collins remains the centerpiece of the Texans’ depleted receiving corps, coming off a franchise playoff-record 122-yard performance. Special teams also played a key role last week, with a blocked punt and a historic blocked PAT return for two points.
Key Matchups and Predictions:
Mahomes vs. Texans’ Secondary: Kansas City’s high-powered passing attack will challenge Houston’s defensive backs. Expect Mahomes to exploit mismatches and connect with Kelce for a big day. Look for Mahomes to surpass 280.5 passing yards and Kelce to notch anytime TD scorer.
Texans’ Run Game: Houston will need Dameon Pierce to establish the ground game early to keep Mahomes off the field. However, Kansas City’s defense has been stout against the run, making it tough for the Texans to control the clock. Bet on Pierce to stay Under 65.5 rushing yards.
Special Teams Impact: Houston’s special teams could play a pivotal role again. A repeat of last week’s blocked punt or big return could help the Texans stay competitive early.
Score Prediction: The Chiefs have dominated this type of matchup in the past, especially at home in Arrowhead Stadium. While the Texans have shown resilience, Kansas City’s experience and offensive firepower will be too much. Expect the Chiefs to win and cover the spread, with a final score of Kansas City 31, Houston 20.
Betting Picks:
Spread: Kansas City -9.0
Total: Over 41.5 – Both offenses are capable of putting up points, especially with Mahomes likely to light up the Texans’ secondary.
Props:
Mahomes Over 280.5 passing yards
Kelce anytime TD scorer
Collins Over 80.5 receiving yards
With a rested roster and home-field advantage, the Chiefs are poised to advance to the AFC Championship for the fifth straight season. The Texans have been a great story, but their run ends in Kansas City.
- NFL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
