Houston (37-23) at Oklahoma City (49-11)
- When: Mar 3 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK, USA
- TV: SCHN
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets: Betting Preview & Predictions
Thunder Favored by 9.5 | Total: 228.0
Oklahoma City Thunder: Offense Surging Post-Break
The Oklahoma City Thunder (43-19) have been one of the NBA’s top defensive teams this season, leading in defensive rating for much of the year. However, since the All-Star break, their defense has slipped to 22nd in the league, but they have compensated with an explosive offense.
The Thunder are averaging 133 points per game over their last six contests, a stretch where they’ve won five of six. Their most recent victory, a 146-132 win over San Antonio, marked their highest scoring output of the season.
Head coach Mark Daigneault has credited their offensive execution, highlighting how their fundamentals and ball movement have helped them create high-quality shot opportunities.
“You’ve got to execute in such a way that good shots present themselves,” Daigneault said. “That’s what’s really happening right now. We’re executing at a high level.”
Oklahoma City has been powered by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, who just delivered their best combined performance of the season.
Williams dropped a career-high 41 points
SGA added 31 points, and neither player committed a turnover
The Thunder have a chance to extend their home dominance, as Monday marks the start of a home-heavy stretch, with four of their next five games played in OKC.
Key Thunder Betting Trends & Stats:
Covering the Spread: 4-1 ATS in their last five games
Home Record: 22-8 SU
SGA’s Impact: Averaging 31.2 PPG over his last five
Jalen Williams Heating Up: Career-high 41 points last game
Houston Rockets: Shorthanded but Competitive
The Houston Rockets (27-34) have relied on their defense all season, ranking fourth in the NBA with a 109.4 defensive rating. However, their defensive execution faltered in their 113-103 loss to Sacramento on Saturday, with head coach Ime Udoka expressing frustration over poor discipline on defensive rotations and pick-and-roll coverage.
“Lack of discipline,” Udoka said bluntly.
The Rockets will need to tighten up quickly against a red-hot Thunder offense, but injuries could make that difficult. Houston could be severely shorthanded, with six players on the injury report:
Fred VanVleet (ankle) out
Steven Adams (ankle) questionable
Dillon Brooks (knee) questionable
Tari Eason (leg) questionable
Alperen Sengun (back) questionable
Amen Thompson (shoulder) questionable
With VanVleet ruled out, Houston could struggle with playmaking and perimeter defense, particularly against SGA and Williams, who are dominating offensive possessions.
Houston just waived Cody Zeller and signed Nate Williams to a four-year deal, giving them another depth option. The Rockets begin a three-game road trip Monday, which will be crucial as they fight to stay in the play-in race.
Key Rockets Betting Trends & Stats:
Road Struggles: 9-21 SU on the road
Defensive Slippage: Allowed 117+ points in five of last six games
Injury Concerns: Five key players questionable
Betting Predictions & Best Bets
Spread Pick: Oklahoma City -9.5 – Houston’s injury concerns and defensive struggles post-break make it tough to trust them here.
Over/Under: Over 228.0 – OKC’s offense is clicking, and Houston’s defensive lapses could lead to a high-scoring affair.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 122, Rockets 110 – Expect OKC to control the pace and extend their offensive dominance.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
