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Indiana (2-2) at Las Vegas (2-2)
- When: Sep 30 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV, USA
- TV: ESPN2
Indiana vs Las Vegas – WNBA Playoffs Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Las Vegas -7.5 | Total: 159.0
Indiana Fever Analysis
The Fever continue to defy expectations. Indiana entered the postseason as the sixth seed and now stands just one win away from a stunning Finals berth. Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston have carried the load, with Mitchell averaging over 23 points this postseason, including 25 in Game 4, while Boston has been a force on the boards and in the paint.
Indiana thrives when their backs are against the wall, improving to 3-0 in elimination games with their latest win. They turned Vegas’ sloppy play into opportunities, scoring 25 points off turnovers and dominating the free throw line in Game 4. Head coach Stephanie White believes urgency is their superpower and she’s right. But to pull off another upset on the road, they’ll need Mitchell’s shooting to stay red-hot and Boston to keep punishing Vegas inside.
Player Prop Pick – Fever: Kelsey Mitchell Over 20.5 Points – Mitchell has scored 20+ in three games this series and remains Indiana’s go-to scorer in crunch time.
Las Vegas Aces Analysis
Las Vegas is one win away from returning to the Finals for the third time in four years, but they’ve made things harder than expected. MVP A’ja Wilson has been her usual dominant self, averaging nearly 25 points per game, but foul trouble and turnovers from her supporting cast doomed the Aces in Game 4.
Head coach Becky Hammon knows her squad needs discipline. The Aces still boast superior depth and experience, and playing at home gives them a strong edge. When they limit mistakes, Vegas overwhelms opponents with their fast pace and inside-out scoring, led by Wilson’s ability to draw double teams and free up perimeter shooters. If her teammates step up, the Aces should advance comfortably.
Player Prop Pick – Aces: A’ja Wilson Over 10.5 Rebounds – Wilson has consistently owned the glass and should be leaned on heavily in this elimination setting.
Prediction & Betting Angle
Indiana has been resilient, but Vegas has the home-court advantage, the MVP in Wilson, and a roster built for championship moments. The Fever’s magical run is impressive, yet the Aces’ firepower makes them tough to bet against in a decisive Game 5.
Best Bet: Las Vegas -7.5
Toral: Under 159.0
Final Score Prediction: Aces 83, Fever 74
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
