Iowa (8-4-0) at Missouri (9-3-0)
- When: Dec 30 2024, 2:30 PM
- Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
- Where to watch: ESPN
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Iowa @ Missouri (#19)
Moneyline
Iowa +130
Missouri (#19) -150
Iowa @ Missouri (#19)
Point Spread
Iowa 2.5 (EVEN)
Missouri (#19) -2.5 (-120)
Iowa @ Missouri (#19)
Total
Over 40.0 (-110)
Under 40.0 (-110)
- Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
Passing Team Leaders:
Iowa: Brendan Sullivan 343 Yds
Missouri: Brady Cook 2248 Yds
Team Stats
| Iowa | Missouri | |
| 8-4 | Record | 9-3 |
| 2-3 | Away | 2-3 |
| 6-5-1 | ATS | 8-4-0 |
| 9-3-0 | O/U | 5-7-0 |
Game Preview
The Music City Bowl features an intriguing matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and No. 19 Missouri Tigers on Monday in Nashville, Tenn. Both teams are navigating roster changes due to injuries, transfer portal defections, and NFL draft opt-outs, making this game a test of depth and adaptability. With Missouri favored by 2.5 points and the total set at a low 40, this bowl game has plenty of betting angles to consider.
Iowa Hawkeyes: Rallying Behind a Tough Defense
The Hawkeyes (8-4) enter this game after winning four of their last five contests, earning their bowl bid by showing resilience during the second half of the season. Iowa’s defense, known for its discipline and consistency under longtime coordinator Phil Parker, will once again be the team’s foundation. Parker’s unit has been among the best in the nation, making Iowa a tough matchup for any offense.
Offensively, Iowa gets a boost with quarterback Brendan Sullivan returning from an ankle injury. Sullivan, who took over for Cade McNamara earlier in the season, has shown promise, completing 24 of 35 passes for 344 yards and two touchdowns in limited action. Backup Jackson Stratton also proved reliable, guiding the Hawkeyes to wins over Maryland and Nebraska when Sullivan was sidelined.
With star running back Kaleb Johnson opting out for the NFL draft, the ground game will rely on Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson. Moulton led the team with 377 rushing yards this season, while Patterson added 235 yards. Iowa’s offensive success will hinge on these backs finding ways to gain yardage against a physical Missouri defense.
Betting Angle: Iowa’s defense keeps them competitive in low-scoring games. Taking the Hawkeyes +2.5 could be a value play, especially in a defensive grind.
Missouri Tigers: Offensive Adjustments Ahead
Missouri (9-3) faces its own challenges heading into the bowl game. Star wide receiver Luther Burden III, tight end Brett Norfleet, and receiver Mookie Cooper will all miss the game due to injuries or NFL draft preparation. Despite these losses, quarterback Brady Cook will look to guide the Tigers to a strong finish. Cook, healthier now after battling a high ankle sprain and a hand injury during the season, has thrown for 2,248 yards and nine touchdowns while rushing for an additional five scores.
With Burden unavailable, Theo Wease Jr. will take on a bigger role in the passing attack. Wease has been reliable all season, recording 55 receptions for 809 yards and three touchdowns. Missouri’s ground game, led by Nate Noel (804 yards, three touchdowns) and Marcus Carroll (578 yards, 12 touchdowns), is back to full strength and will be crucial in sustaining drives.
Coach Eli Drinkwitz acknowledged the challenge of facing Iowa’s disciplined defense, praising their consistency and ability to limit big plays. Missouri will need to rely on its experienced offensive line and Cook’s versatility to find ways to move the ball.
Betting Angle: Missouri’s offense is more dynamic but could struggle against Iowa’s stout defense. A low-scoring affair could make the under (40) a smart play.
Key Matchups to Watch:
– Iowa Defense vs. Brady Cook:
Cook’s mobility and dual-threat ability will be tested against Iowa’s disciplined defense, which thrives on forcing mistakes.
– Iowa Ground Game vs. Missouri Front Seven:
With Johnson out, Iowa’s rushing attack needs to find consistency against Missouri’s physical defensive line.
– Theo Wease vs. Iowa Secondary:
Wease steps into the spotlight for Missouri’s passing game. How he performs against Iowa’s secondary could be a game-changer.
Predictions and Best Bets:
– Spread: Iowa +2.5 & ML
Iowa’s elite defense and ability to control the tempo make them a solid pick to cover the spread and moneyline upset in a low-scoring game.
– Total: Under 40
With both teams missing key offensive pieces and Iowa’s defense dictating the pace, the under is a strong play.
– Player Prop to Watch: Theo Wease Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
Wease is Cook’s go-to target with Burden out, and he should see plenty of opportunities to make an impact.
Conclusion:
This Music City Bowl matchup promises to be a gritty, defense-first contest with playoff-level intensity. Iowa’s experience in close, low-scoring games and their consistent defense make them a strong pick against the spread. Meanwhile, Missouri will need a sharp performance from Brady Cook to overcome Iowa’s stingy defense. Bettors should lean toward Iowa to upset and consider the under for a game likely dominated by defense.
Music City Bowl Parlay Picks & Predictions
Final Score: Iowa 20-17
Expert Pick: Iowa (+130) & Under 40
A $100 Parlay Bet will return $439
- Music City Bowl Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
