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Kansas City (2-2-0) at Jacksonville (3-1-0)
- When: Oct 6 2025, 8:15 PM
- Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- Where to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Last Meeting: KC 17-9, September 17th, 2023
Kansas City vs Jacksonville Preview & Prediction
Spread: Kansas City -3.5
Moneyline: Kansas City (-210)
Total: 45.5
Kansas City Chiefs Outlook
For Kansas City, this is just another prime-time test on a big stage and they’ve looked more like themselves lately. After a shaky 0–2 start, the Chiefs have ripped off back-to-back dominant wins, including a 37–20 rout of Baltimore. Patrick Mahomes looked dialed in with four touchdown passes, showing that when the offense executes, it’s still one of the toughest units to contain.
Kansas City’s success this season has come from ball security and balance. They’ve turned the ball over just once through four games, the fewest in the NFL, a massive improvement from the turnover-heavy 2023 campaign. With a healthy Xavier Worthy stretching defenses and Travis Kelce commanding attention underneath, the Chiefs have rediscovered their rhythm.
On defense, Kansas City continues to trend upward. Their pressure packages have forced opposing quarterbacks into hurried throws, and they’ve held teams to 20 points or fewer in three straight outings. If Mahomes stays clean and the run game remains efficient, the Chiefs should be in prime position to cover the spread.
Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns – Mahomes has been in peak form, throwing eight TDs in the past two weeks. Against a Jaguars secondary that’s been aggressive but beatable, expect him to air it out again.
Chiefs Betting Angle: The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven prime-time games and thrive when playing with momentum. With Mahomes in rhythm and the offense firing on all cylinders, the defending AFC champs look poised to roll.
Jacksonville Jaguars Outlook
For Jacksonville, this isn’t just another game, it’s a chance to prove they belong in the AFC elite. The Jaguars haven’t beaten Kansas City since 2009, losing eight straight in the matchup. But under head coach Liam Coen, this team has a different edge. They lead the league in takeaways (13) and have bullied opponents in the trenches, ranking fourth in rushing offense.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence understands the challenge. He knows that taking down the Chiefs would be a major statement and the key will be protecting the football while keeping pace offensively. Jacksonville’s defense can create chaos, but its secondary will need to limit explosive plays to stay in it.
The emergence of Travis Hunter as a dynamic two-way weapon gives Jacksonville a spark. Despite being banged up, Hunter continues to make highlight plays, including a 28-yard leaping grab last week. If the Jaguars’ offense can capitalize on red-zone chances and control the tempo with their ground game, this could be a nail-biter.
Prop Pick: Travis Etienne Over 65.5 Rushing Yards – Etienne has been the heart of Jacksonville’s offense, and his workload should stay heavy against a Kansas City defense vulnerable to big runs. Expect him to hit the over with volume alone.
Jaguars Betting Angle: Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog. If they can win the turnover battle and establish Etienne early, they have the tools to make this one go down to the wire.
NFL Prediction & Betting Angle
Kansas City has the edge in experience, execution, and quarterback play. Jacksonville’s defense will cause problems early, but Mahomes’ poise and the Chiefs’ versatility should prevail late. Expect a competitive first half before Kansas City pulls away.
Final Score: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20
Lean: Kansas City -3.5
Total: Over 45.5
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
