Kansas (19-10) at Houston (25-4)
- When: Mar 3 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: Fertitta Center, Houston, TX, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Houston vs. Kansas Betting Preview & Predictions
Houston is favored by 9.5 | Total: 132.5
Houston Cougars: Aiming to Close Out at Home
The No. 4 Houston Cougars (25-4, 17-1 Big 12) have already secured the Big 12 regular-season title for the second straight year, but they aren’t taking their foot off the gas. The Cougars extended their winning streak to eight games with a 73-64 victory over Cincinnati on Saturday and now look to close out their home slate on a high note against Kansas.
Houston has been dominant at home, boasting a 15-1 record, and they rank in the top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Three of their four losses this season have come in overtime, and the only regulation loss was to No. 1 Auburn.
Head coach Kelvin Sampson has his team locked in as a national championship contender, and while Houston has already clinched the Big 12 crown, they won’t be coasting into the postseason.
“This one is special because it’s this group,” Sampson said. “Every season, the most important team I coach is the one I’m with. We build it up, and it takes time. It’s a process.”
Houston’s defensive intensity has been key, as they allow just 57.9 points per game—the best scoring defense in the nation. The Cougars also force turnovers at a high rate, which will be crucial against a Kansas team that has been vulnerable in tight games.
Key Stats & Trends for Houston:
Home Record: 15-1
Covering the Spread: 6-2 in last 8 games
Scoring Defense: No. 1 in the nation (57.9 PPG allowed)
L.J. Cryer’s Impact: Leads the team with 14.8 PPG, shooting over 40% from three
Houston outlasted Kansas in a thrilling 92-86 double-overtime win on Jan. 25. With their defensive pressure and home-court advantage, they’ll look to control the pace and cover the spread again.
Kansas Jayhawks: Searching for a Statement Win
The No. 19 Kansas Jayhawks (19-10, 10-8 Big 12) are looking to bounce back after a tough 78-73 home loss to No. 10 Texas Tech on Saturday. Head coach Bill Self had called for a reset after a brutal 34-point loss to BYU in mid-February, but Kansas still struggles to close out tight games, posting a 1-3 record in Big 12 matchups decided by six points or fewer.
Kansas fought hard to erase an 11-point halftime deficit against Texas Tech, tying the game at 73-73 late, but defensive lapses cost them in crunch time.
“We played really well against Houston earlier this season,” Self said. “We had chances against Texas Tech but couldn’t get stops when we needed them. Against a team like Houston, it’s going to take an unbelievable effort.”
The Jayhawks lean heavily on Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams Jr. to control the paint. Dickinson leads the team in scoring (16.9 PPG) and rebounding (9.8 RPG), while Adams just posted a career-high 13 rebounds in the loss to Texas Tech.
Key Stats & Trends for Kansas:
Road Record: 5-5
Close Game Struggles: 1-3 in two-possession Big 12 games
Scoring Leaders: Dickinson (16.9 PPG), Adams (12.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG)
Past Matchup: Lost to Houston in 92-86 double OT thriller
Kansas has shown they can compete with Houston, but the Cougars’ elite defense and home-court advantage make this a tough spot. The Jayhawks have also struggled on the road, and covering a 9.5-point spread against an elite defense will be a challenge.
Betting Predictions & Best Bets
Spread Pick: Houston -9.5 → Kansas has struggled in close games, while Houston’s defensive efficiency gives them a clear edge.
Over/Under: Under 132.5 → Both teams play at a slower tempo, and Houston’s elite defense should keep the total under.
Final Score Prediction: Houston 70, Kansas 58 → Expect the Cougars to control the tempo and pull away late.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
