Kentucky (18-8) at Alabama (21-5)
- When: Feb 22 2025, 6:00 PM
- Where: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Game Preview
Alabama Favored by 10, Total Set at 180
No. 4 Alabama (-10) returns home desperate to avoid a three-game losing streak, while No. 17 Kentucky looks to build momentum after a dominant win over Vanderbilt. With the total set at 180, this SEC showdown is expected to be an offensive showcase.
Alabama Crimson Tide (21-5, 10-3 SEC)
Alabama has hit a rough patch, dropping two straight games, including a 110-98 defensive disaster against Missouri. The Crimson Tide have now allowed 80+ points in seven of their last nine games, raising serious concerns as they fight for SEC positioning.
Despite their defensive struggles, Alabama remains one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation, but their inability to contain opponents has cost them.
Key Players & Props:
Mark Sears (18.5 PPG) – Coming off a season-high 35-point explosion, Sears has been the go-to scorer for the Tide. Expect another high-usage game. (Over 22.5 points a strong prop bet)
Grant Nelson (14.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG) – A dominant presence in the paint, Nelson could exploit Kentucky’s interior defense. (Double-double prop worth considering)
Alabama Team Total Over 94.5 – Given their recent scoring pace and Kentucky’s defensive issues, this is in play.
Betting Trends:
Alabama is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games
The Over has hit in 5 of Alabama’s last 6 games
The Tide have failed to cover two straight spreads as favorites
Kentucky Wildcats (18-8, 7-6 SEC)
Kentucky rebounded with an 82-61 blowout win over Vanderbilt, led by Otega Oweh’s 20 points. However, the Wildcats have struggled on the road, posting a 2-5 record away from home.
The Wildcats also remain shorthanded, with point guard Lamont Butler (shoulder) and off-guard Jaxson Robinson (wrist) both questionable for Saturday’s showdown. Without Butler, Kentucky has struggled to contain elite guards, which could spell trouble against Sears.
Key Players & Props:
Otega Oweh (16.2 PPG) – Has hit 20+ points in 8 games this season. If Kentucky keeps it close, he’ll need a big performance. (Over 18.5 points worth a look)
Amari Williams (10.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG) – Scored 17 points on 100% shooting last game. (Over 10.5 points is solid value)
Kentucky Team Total Under 85.5 – Given their road struggles, Kentucky may struggle to keep pace with Alabama.
Betting Trends:
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog
The Wildcats are just 2-5 ATS on the road this season
The Over has hit in 7 of Kentucky’s last 9 games
Game Prediction & Best Bets
Alabama is desperate to stop its losing skid and has the offensive firepower to overwhelm Kentucky at home. However, the Wildcats have been efficient offensively and could exploit Alabama’s defensive lapses.
Best Bets:
Alabama -10 – The Tide should bounce back strong at home.
Over 180 – Both teams play at a blistering pace, and neither defense has been great.
Mark Sears Over 22.5 Points – Kentucky’s backcourt injuries make this a strong prop.
Final Score Prediction: Alabama 101, Kentucky 88
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
