LA Chargers (11-6) at Houston (10-7)
- When: Jan 11 2025, 4:30 PM
- Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Where to watch: CBS
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Moneyline
Los Angeles Chargers -165
Houston Texans +140
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Point Spread
Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 (-110)
Houston Texans 3.0 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Total
Over 41.5 (-115)
Under 41.5 (-105)
- Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
Key Players:
LA Chargers:
Justin Herbert
Houston: C.J. Stroud
Team Stats
| Chargers | Texans | |
| 11-6 | Record | 10-7 |
| 6-3 | Away & Home | 5-3 |
| 12-5-0 | ATS | 7-8-2 |
| 8-9-0 | O/U | 5-10-2 |
Last Matchup:
LAC 34-24, October 2nd, 2022
Game Preview
The LA Chargers enter Saturday’s AFC Wild-Card matchup as 3.0-point favorites with the total set at 41.5, as they visit a Houston Texans team looking to build on late-season momentum in a game filled with intriguing storylines.
Betting Analysis
Houston (10-7) fought their way to another AFC South title despite a streaky finish, winning three of their last six games, including a much-needed 23-14 win over the Titans in Week 17. However, they rested several starters in their Week 18 blowout loss to Baltimore. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been efficient, connecting on 68.1% of his passes and forming a strong connection with Nico Collins, who stepped up after Stefon Diggs’ injury to lead the team in receiving yards and touchdowns.
On the other side, the Chargers (11-6) head into the playoffs riding a three-game winning streak. Justin Herbert threw for 346 yards and two touchdowns in their 34-20 win over Las Vegas to secure the AFC’s fifth seed. Rookie wideout Ladd McConkey has been a breakout star for Los Angeles, racking up 1,149 receiving yards and emerging as Herbert’s go-to target alongside Quentin Johnston.
Key Matchups and Betting Angles
Texans’ Defensive Front vs. Herbert’s Passing Game: Houston boasts one of the league’s top pass defenses, allowing just 201 passing yards per game (6th in the NFL) and forcing 29 takeaways, tied for fifth-most. Led by Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (11 sacks), their pass rush could disrupt Herbert’s rhythm. However, the Chargers have shown adaptability with a balanced offensive scheme that keeps defenses guessing.
Chargers’ Defensive Edge: LA’s defense, led by Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, ranks as the top scoring defense in the league. The Texans’ offensive line will need to protect Stroud, especially with right guard Shaq Mason ruled out.
Red-Zone Efficiency: Houston’s defense ranks 27th in red-zone stops, which could prove costly against a Chargers team that excels at finishing drives. Conversely, the Texans will need to capitalize on red-zone opportunities to keep pace.
Injury Impact
The Texans are dealing with several injuries, with key defensive players like Denico Autry and Christian Harris listed as questionable. The Chargers ruled out WR Joshua Palmer (heel) and have multiple players questionable, including Quentin Johnston and Eli Apple. The possible absence of Johnston could affect LA’s vertical game.
Betting Predictions
Spread Pick (-3.0): The Chargers’ defense and Herbert’s recent form give them the edge to cover the 3-point spread. However, if Houston’s pass rush can create pressure and force turnovers, this could turn into a close contest.
Total Pick (41.5): Both teams have offensive firepower but are facing solid defensive fronts. If red-zone struggles continue for Houston, the under looks promising. However, a quick start from LA could lead to a higher-scoring affair.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Justin Herbert over 270.5 passing yards: Herbert has been in sync with his receivers and could take advantage of Houston’s red-zone weaknesses.
Nico Collins over 5.5 receptions: Collins has become Stroud’s favorite target and should see plenty of looks in a must-win game.
Total sacks over 4.5: With two strong pass-rushing units, this line has value.
Prediction:
The Chargers’ defensive pressure and balanced offense should give them the upper hand in a game that could start close but swing in LA’s favor late. Expect Herbert to make the key plays necessary to secure the win and keep LA’s playoff run alive.
NFL Parlay Picks & Predictions
Final Score: LA Chargers 24-20
Expert Pick: LA Chargers -3 & Over 41½ (-115)
A $100 Parlay Bet will return $357
- NFL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
