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Las Vegas (19-14) at Phoenix (19-12)
- When: Aug 15 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: ION
Las Vegas vs Phoenix – WNBA Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Phoenix -4.5 | Total: 169.0
Las Vegas Aces Betting Breakdown
The Aces come in as 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 169.0, riding a five-game winning streak after an 83-77 win over the defending champion Liberty. MVP front-runner A’ja Wilson has been nothing short of dominant, pulling down 16 rebounds to go with 17 points last game, seven boards coming in the fourth quarter alone as Las Vegas rallied late.
Jewell Loyd continues to thrive in her new sixth-woman role, hitting 21 points and five threes off the bench against New York. The Aces are now 7-1 since she shifted into that role, giving them an extra scoring punch in non-Wilson minutes.
Wilson’s last game in Phoenix was a monster 26-point, 18-rebound outing in a tight 84-81 win. Given her current form, she’s a major matchup headache for the Mercury frontcourt.
Aces Prop Pick: A’ja Wilson Over 10.5 rebounds – Her recent rebounding surge and dominance in prior meetings with Phoenix make this a high-percentage play.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Breakdown
The Mercury are looking to rebound after a 74-66 home loss to Atlanta snapped their three-game winning streak. MVP contender Alyssa Thomas leads the league in assists (9.0 APG) and has been a triple-double machine this year, becoming the first WNBA player ever to notch three straight in early August.
Phoenix has enjoyed a needed break after playing nine games in 19 days, and the rest could be a difference-maker in this matchup. Thomas has 16 double-doubles this season and is averaging 16.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, and that league-leading dime total, making her both the Mercury’s floor general and their engine.
The Mercury split the first two meetings with the Aces, each winning on the road. They’ll need to clean up their shooting and limit Las Vegas’ second-chance points if they want to cover at home.
Mercury Prop Pick: Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists – Given her elite playmaking and high-usage role, she’s likely to rack up dimes in a fast-paced matchup.
WNBA Prediction & Betting Angle
The Aces’ depth, Wilson’s dominance, and their ability to close games late give them the edge. Phoenix’s rest advantage should keep it close, but Las Vegas has been locked in.
Best Bet: Las Vegas (+165)
Toral: Over 169.0
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas 88, Phoenix 84
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
