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Las Vegas (2-0) at Phoenix (0-2)
- When: Oct 8 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: ESPN
Phoenix vs Las Vegas – WNBA Finals Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Phoenix -4.5 | Total: 163.0
Las Vegas Aces Betting Outlook
The Aces have looked every bit like the defending champions, and now they stand one win away from a WNBA title sweep. A’ja Wilson continues to show why she is the most dominant force in the league, recording 28 points and 14 rebounds in Game 2. Her ability to control both ends of the floor has completely tilted the momentum in Las Vegas’ favor.
Jackie Young has also been sensational, pouring in 32 points in Game 2 and giving Phoenix’s defense headaches with her combination of strength and shooting touch. The Aces’ decision to play four guards around Wilson has stretched the Mercury’s defense and created mismatches that Phoenix has yet to solve.
Head coach Becky Hammon knows the toughest test is still ahead, going on the road with the championship within reach. “We can’t assume anything,” she said earlier this week. “We’ve got to stay sharp and stay humble.”
The Aces are 23 and 3 in their last 26 games, including a 16-game regular season winning streak. Their offense has been relentless, averaging over 90 points during the postseason, and their ball movement remains elite.
Aces Player Prop Pick: A’ja Wilson Over 10.5 Rebounds — Wilson has been a force inside and is averaging well above that mark in these playoffs.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Outlook
The Mercury return home down 0 to 2, facing elimination but far from surrendering. Phoenix knows this is the defining game of its season, and their energy will be sky-high in front of their home crowd.
Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally have been the bright spots, combining for 45 points in Game 2. The problem has been efficiency, Phoenix shot just 40 percent from the field and an ice-cold 18 percent from beyond the arc. To make this a series, they’ll need to find their touch early and defend without fouling.
Alyssa Thomas, the emotional engine of this team, must stay out of foul trouble after being limited to 10 points in Game 2. Her defense on A’ja Wilson is crucial, and coach Nate Tibbetts emphasized that the Mercury can’t afford to have her on the bench again.
Despite the uphill battle, Phoenix has been resilient all postseason. They’ve already won road elimination games in New York and Minnesota, and Copper who won a championship with Chicago in 2021, believes in her team’s identity. “We’ve been down before,” she said. “It’s about locking in defensively and trusting each other.”
Mercury Player Prop Pick: Kahleah Copper Over 17.5 Points — Copper thrives in big moments, and with Phoenix’s season on the line, she’ll take plenty of shots.
Expert Prediction & Betting Angle
Phoenix will feed off its home crowd and play with desperation, but Las Vegas has the composure and championship DNA to close the deal. Expect another strong start from the Aces, balanced scoring from Young and Wilson, and a valiant but ultimately short-handed fight from the Mercury.
Best Bet: Las Vegas ML (+165)
Toral: Over 163.0
Final Score Prediction: Aces 87, Mercury 81
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
