Maryland (22-7) at Michigan (22-7)
- When: Mar 5 2025, 6:30 PM
- Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
- Where to watch: BTN
Michigan vs. Maryland: Big Ten Battle with Conference Title Implications
Spread: Michigan -2.5
Total: 154.5
The Big Ten race is heating up, and Wednesday’s matchup between No. 13 Maryland and No. 17 Michigan in Ann Arbor could be a decisive one. Both teams have 22-7 records, but their paths to success have been drastically different.
Michigan has thrived in close games, positioning itself for a shot at the Big Ten title, while Maryland has struggled in tight matchups, dropping multiple contests in heartbreaking fashion. With both squads featuring dominant frontcourt duos, expect a battle in the paint with major conference seeding implications.
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines (22-7, 14-4 Big Ten) have been masters of the clutch, boasting an 11-1 record in conference games decided by four points or fewer. Their ability to close out tight games has kept them near the top of the Big Ten standings, but their most recent performance was anything but competitive.
Michigan was dominated at home in a 93-73 loss to Illinois on Sunday, getting crushed on the boards (19 offensive rebounds allowed) and struggling defensively.
Depth is a concern, as Michigan relies heavily on its starters, with 76% of its scoring coming from the first five.
Frontcourt strength has been a key factor all season, led by Danny Wolf (12.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG) and Vladislav Goldin (16.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG).
Despite Sunday’s blowout loss, coach Dusty May remains confident that his team won’t wear down heading into the season’s final stretch.
“We’re in contention to compete for three more championships. If nothing else motivates you, then you’re not built for it anyway.”
Michigan can still claim at least a share of the Big Ten title by winning its final two games, including Sunday’s showdown at Michigan State. That makes Wednesday’s game a must-win if they want to keep their championship hopes alive.
Michigan Betting Trends:
5-1 ATS in their last six home games
4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. Maryland
Over has hit in 3 of their last 4 games
Maryland Terrapins
The Terrapins (22-7, 12-6 Big Ten) have been on the wrong end of close games all season, losing all six of their conference games by six points or fewer.
Three of those defeats came on last-second shots against Northwestern, Ohio State, and Michigan State.
However, they might have turned a corner with a 68-64 road win over Penn State in their last game.
Maryland is currently tied for third in the Big Ten with Wisconsin and Purdue, and a top-four finish guarantees a double bye in the conference tournament.
Like Michigan, Maryland relies heavily on its starters, with 85% of its scoring coming from the first five. Their strength lies in their dominant frontcourt, featuring:
6’10 freshman Derik Queen (15.9 PPG, 9.0 RPG)
6’9 senior Julian Reese (13.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG)
Coach Kevin Willard has emphasized his team’s reliance on its starting lineup, making it clear that bench production isn’t a major factor in their offense.
“Those first five are all guys that can score. I don’t know where the shots are going to come from (from the bench).”
Maryland Betting Trends:
6-2 ATS in their last eight road games
4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog
Under has hit in 5 of their last 7 games
Final Prediction & Betting Outlook
This matchup is crucial for both teams—Michigan is fighting for the Big Ten title, while Maryland is chasing a top-four finish for a double bye in the conference tournament.
The Wolverines have been exceptional in close games, and with home-court advantage, they should have the edge against a Maryland team that has struggled in crunch time.
Pick: Michigan -2.5
Projected Score: Michigan 81, Maryland 76
Best Bet: Over 154.5
Expect a physical battle in the paint, but Michigan’s clutch play and superior three-point shooting should help them pull away late. The over looks appealing, as both teams can push the pace and score efficiently in the half-court.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
